Phillies vs. Cubs Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Thursday, April 23

The Philadelphia Phillies have gotten off to a slow start in the 2026 season, winning just eight of their first 24 games heading into Thursday’s series finale against the Chicago Cubs.

Philadelphia is set as a road favorite in this matchup, as lefty Cristopher Sanchez (1.59 ERA) is on the mound against Chicago’s Edward Cabrera (2.38 ERA).

Both starters have gotten off to strong starts in 2026, but Sanchez has much better advanced numbers than Cabrera, who has an expected ERA of 4.42.

The Cubs have won eight games in a row and nine of their last 10, and a win on Thursday would give them a four-game sweep over the Phils. Can they get it done?

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop to consider and my prediction for this afternoon battle on April 23.

Phillies vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Phillies -1.5 (+129)
Cubs +1.5 (-156)

Moneyline

Phillies: -122
Cubs: +102

Total

9 (Over -115/Under -105)

Phillies vs. Cubs Probable Pitchers

Philadelphia: Cristopher Sanchez (2-2, 1.59 ERA)
Chicago: Edward Cabrera (2-0, 2.38 ERA)

Phillies vs. Cubs How to Watch

Date: Thursday, April 23
Time: 2:20 p.m. EST
Venue: Wrigley Field
How to Watch (TV): Marquee Sports Network, NBC Sports Philadelphia
Phillies record: 8-16
Cubs record: 15-9

Phillies vs. Cubs Best MLB Prop Bets

Phillies Best MLB Prop Bet

Cristopher Sanchez OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-105)

I believe that Sanchez is wildly undervalued on Thursday afternoon, even against a streaking Cubs team. The Cubbies still rank 14th in the league in strikeouts per game, averaging over eight per night, yet Sanchez’s K’s prop is down all the way at 5.5

This season, the left-hander is averaging 12.4 K’s per nine innings, punching out 39 batters in 28.1 innings of work. He’s struck out at least six batters in all five of his starts, including three starts with eight or more punchouts.

Sanchez ranks in the 90th percentile amongst MLB pitchers in strikeout percentage and the 84th percentile in whiff percentage. He’s a no-brainer bet at this number in this series finale.

Phillies vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best MLB best column why I’m trusting both of these starters in the first inning:

Two starters that have been lights out in the 2026 season face off in a matinee matchup on Thursday.

Cristopher Sanchez and the Philadelphia Phillies are favored on the road against the Chicago Cubs, who have youngster Edward Cabrera making his fifth start of the season.

Cabrera has a 2.38 ERA in the 2026 campaign, allowing just six runs in over 22 innings of work. He also has not allowed a single run in the opening frame, which is great for today’s NRFI bet.

Sanchez has allowed one first inning run in five starts, posting a 1.59 ERA overall. The lefty has allowed just five runs in over 28 innings of work, and he ranks in the 81st percentile in expected ERA.

Cabrera’s advanced numbers aren’t nearly as good, but both of these teams have hit the NRFI at a high rate in 2026. The Cubs have hit it in 83.33 percent of their games while the Phillies have done so in two thirds of their matchups.

With these two starters on the mound, I expect a quick first inning on Thursday afternoon.

Pick: No Run First Innings (-115 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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