Phillies vs. Mets Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Monday, April 21

Two NL East rivals will battle on Monday night, as the New York Mets look to extend their winning streak against the Philadelphia Phillies.

These squads are separated by just two games in the standings, but the Mets (who have won four in a row) have a much better run differential (+30) than the Phillies (+2) at this point in the season.

Aaron Nola will get the ball for the Phils, and he’s gotten off to a dreadful start in 2025, going 0-4 with a 6.65 ERA in four starts. He’ll look to get back on track with the Phillies set as just small underdogs against Tylor Megill and the Mets.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to bet in the prop market and my prediction for this divisional battle.

Phillies vs. Mets Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Phillies -1.5 (+164)
Mets +1.5 (-198)

Moneyline

Phillies: +105
Mets: -125

Total

8 (Over -105/Under -115)

Phillies vs. Mets Probable Pitchers

Philadelphia: Aaron Nola (0-4, 6.65 ERA)
New York: Tylor Megill (2-2, 1.40 ERA)

Phillies vs. Mets How to Watch

Date: Monday, April 21
Time: 7:10 p.m. EST
Venue: Citi Field
How to Watch (TV): SNY, NBCS-PH
Phillies record: 13-9
Mets record: 15-7

Phillies vs. Mets Best MLB Prop Bets

Mets Best MLB Prop Bet

Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+380)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks – Daily Dinger – why Juan Soto has a great matchup to go deep tonight:

Mets star Juan Soto has just three homers in the 2025 season, but he has a familiar matchup on Monday night against struggling Philadelphia Phillies starter Aaron Nola.

This season, Nola has a 6.65 ERA across four starts, leading the Phillies to four straight losses in those outings. On top of that, he’s been taken deep four times.

In his career against Nola, Soto is hitting 9-for-35 (.257) but he’s smacked three homers during that stretch. On top of that, Soto has drawn 15 walks in 50 plate appearances against Nola in his career.

If the Phillies starter pitches to Soto, he’s a solid target at nearly 4/1 odds.

Phillies vs. Mets Prediction and Pick

The Mets may be undervalued in the odds for this game, and I shared why in today’s MLB Best Bets column:

New York Mets starter Tylor Megill is off to a great start in the 2025 season – even though his team is just 2-2 in his four outings.

Megill has allowed just seven hits and three earned runs across 19.1 innings of work, posting a 1.40 ERA in the process.

On Monday, he’s at home against the Philadelphia Phillies, who are sending the struggling Aaron Nola (6.65 ERA) to the mound. Philly has lost all four of Nola’s starts this season, and he’s really struggled to keep hitters off the basepaths, posting a 1.66 WHIP.

The Mets come into this game on a four-game winning streak, and they hold the top spot in the NL East. On top of that, they’re one of the best home teams in baseball, going 9-1 straight up.

Still, New York is only a slight favorite against a Phillies team that is 4-5 on the road. This is an easy bet to make on Monday.

Pick: Mets Moneyline (-125 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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