Player Prop Countdown: Top 10 NFL Player Props for Week 7 (Believe in Bo Nix)

The Week 6 edition of the Player Prop Countdown went well for us! We went 6-4 across the 10 plays, including cashing in on Tre Tucker to score a touchdown at +285.

Let's keep the good times rolling in Week 7. We once again have 14 games to bet on, including a morning game in France on Sunday. It's time for this week's edition of the Player Prop Countdown.

Best NFL Week 7 Prop Bets

10) Brock Purdy OVER 238.5 Pass Yards -115 (BetRivers)

The Falcons' secondary is in a tough spot heading into this week. C.J. Henderson was limited at practice on Wednesday, and A.J. Terrell isn't quite ready to return from his stint on the IR. That leaves their defensive backfield susceptible, especially when facing an MVP candidate in Brock Purdy.

Purdy has gone over 238.5 passing yards in three of his six games this season and I see no reason why he can't do it again on Sunday. Atlanta is coming off a performance where they allowed Caleb Williams to complete 30-of-36 passes for 305 yards.

9) Geno Smith OVER 20.5 Completions -120 (BetMGM)

The Miami Dolphins' defense has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete a blistering 76.55% of pass attempts against them. That's the highest opponent completion percentage in the NFL by 7.4%.

That's great news for Geno Smith, who ranks ninth among NFL quarterbacks in completion percentage over expected this season. As long as the Jets don't win this one in a blowout, leading to Smith not having to throw much late in the game, I expect him to soar over this total.

8) Tucker Kraft Anytime Touchdown +185 (BetMGM)

The Lions have done a horrific job defending against tight ends this season. Despite playing one fewer game than the majority of the league, they have given up nine more receptions to tight ends than any other team in the NFL. They have also already allowed 545 receiving yards and nine touchdowns to the position. Unless Brian Branch's return completely fixes that problem, it could be a huge game for the Packers' tight end, Tucker Kraft.

7) Tanner McKee OVER 210.5 Pass Yards -115 (PointsBet)

I get that the Eagles' offense is depleted and Tanner McKee didn't exactly look elite in his first start last weekend, but he now gets to face the worst defense in NFL history. The Cowboys rank last in opponent dropback EPA and last in opponent success rate. A high school quarterback might be able to throw for 211+ yards against this secondary, so I'm going to trust McKee to do exactly that on Monday Night Football.

6) Sam Darnold UNDER 224.5 Pass Yards -115 (Caesars)

I don't know if it's quite time to push the panic button in Seattle, but Sam Darnold has not looked like the Sam Darnold from a year ago. He's just 19th in the NFL in completion percentage over expected, and he has thrown for over 250 yards just twice; in both those games, he had 45+ pass attempts.

Now he has to face a Chiefs' defense that ranks fourth in the league in opponent dropback EPA. It may be time to sell some of our Darnold stock.

5) Pat Freiermuth OVER 3.5 Receptions +140 (PointsBet)

The Saints are another team that has struggled to defend tight ends this season, allowing opposing tight ends to haul in 42 receptions, the second-most in the NFL. Tight ends have also racked up 455 yards and three touchdowns against New Orleans. That's great news for Aaron Rodgers, who loves to utilize his tight ends as much as possible, especially with the wide receiver core getting hit with the injury bug.

Pat Freiermuth has seen 4+ targets in five of his six games and has hauled in 4+ receptions three times.

4) J.J. McCarthy UNDER 204.5 Pass Yards -111 (DraftKings)

Praise be to Gamblor, we get to bet against J.J. McCarthy again! I don't care how good he looked when he came in for relief for Jameis Winston against the Saints last week; I remember how bad he was for the Vikings, and I don't expect his stint with the Giants to go much better. To make matters worse, he now has to face one of the best defenses in the NFL, which has one of the best cornerback tandems. This could be an ugly performance for Nine.

3) Jaylen Warren OVER 62.5 Rush Yards -115 (BetMGM)

The No. 1 thing to watch for in the Steelers vs. Saints game in France is the New Orleans run defense. They rank dead last in the NFL in both opponent rush EPA and opponent rush success rate. Now they have to face Jaylen Warren, who has been extremely effective so far this NFL season, averaging a blistering 5.5 yards per carry. The Steelers would be smart to stick to the ground and hand it to their No. 1 running back early and often in this game.

2) Bryce Young UNDER 256.5 Pass Yards -115 (BetMGM)

Bryce Young has taken a massive leap forward this season. He went from averaging never averaging more than 188 passing yards per game in his career, to all of a sudden averaging 309.8 passing yards per game this season. He has all of a sudden become an elite quarterback, or has his production been an anomaly due to playing bad defenses, and will he come back down to earth? I'm willing to bet on the latter being the case.

He now has to face a defense that's seventh in opponent dropback EPA while allowing just 6.3 yards per pass attempt. I'm going to fade him on Sunday.

1) Bo Nix OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns +120 (BetRivers)

I understand the Bo Nix narrative heading into this week, but we have to cut him a little bit of slack. He has had to face a murderers' row of defenses this season, including the Chiefs, Jaguars, Rams, 49ers, and Seahawks. He now gets to face by far the easiest defense he's faced this season.

The Cardinals rank 30th in opponent dropback EPA, 25th in opponent dropback success rate, and they've allowed 16 passing touchdowns, the most in the NFL. At plus-money, I'll jump all over him to throw for at least two scores on Sunday.

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