Positive Caleb Williams Update Causes Major Shift in Bears vs. Falcons Odds for NFL Week 6

Chicago Bears star quarterback Caleb Williams missed his third straight game in Week 5 of the 2026 NFL season due to a hamstring injury on Sunday.

Williams progressed enough for the Bears to list him as questionable for the game, but backup Tyson Bagent started -- and struggled -- in a loss to the Green Bay Packers. In fact, Bagent was benched for veteran Case Keenum after he threw a pair of interceptions in the loss.

Chicago is now 3-2 this season, and it appears Williams is nearing a return from the hamstring strain (Grade 2) that he suffered in Week 2 against the Minnesota Vikings. According to Bears head coach Ben Johnson, Williams is "on track" and he believes it'll be "close" if he's able to play in Week 6 against the Atlanta Falcons.

Ben Johnson on when Caleb Williams (hamstring) can return: "He's on track. We'll see if that's Atlanta or after. I think it's going to be close."
— Chris Emma (@ChrisEmma1) October 11, 2026

Oddsmakers seem to think that there is a good chance the former No. 1 overall pick will play in Week 6, as Chicago went from a 1.5-point underdog in the opening odds for this game to a three-point favorite. DraftKings Sportsbook has sthe Bears set at -175 to win this game outright over an Atlanta team that fell to 2-3 in Week 5.

The Bears' schedule could play a role in Williams' return as well. Chicago has a quick turnaround in Week 7, taking on the New England Patriots on Thursday night. It then plays a major game against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 8.

So, it Williams isn't completely ready to return, the Bears may not want to rush him back for Week 6 with a Thursday game waiting in Week 7.

According to ProFootballTalk's Mike Florio, Williams is still considered week-to-week, and that the Bears are waiting until he's "ready" before throwing him back into the fold.

Williams was off to a great start in 2026 before his injury, throwing for 407 yards, two scores and one pick while also adding a pair of touchdowns on the ground for Chicago. Bagent has thrown three interceptions in his two starts for Chicago while Keenum threw a pick in relief of Bagent on Sunday.

The Bears are still favored to make the playoffs at -154, but a loss in Week 6 would complicate things with the NFC North currently sporting four teams over .500.

If Williams is able to practice early in the week, it should bode well for his chances of playing on Sunday.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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