Rangers vs. Astros Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Monday, Sept. 15

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Texas Rangers-Houston Astros matchup on Sept. 15.

The Houston Astros have won the last eight starts by starting pitcher Jason Alexander. / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The Texas Rangers and Houston Astros are both battling for the final wild card spot in the American League entering their early-week series on Monday.

Texas is two games back in the wild card after Houston blew the AL West lead to the Seattle Mariners, who have won nine games in a row.

Oddsmakers have set Houston as a favorite at home on Monday with Jason Alexander on the mound against Rangers righty Jack Leiter.

Houston is 11 games over .500 at home, but can it close out the season strong and potentially re-take the lead in the AL West?

Let’s dive into the odds, players to watch and my prediction for Monday night’s rivalry matchup. 

Rangers vs. Astros Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Rangers +1.5 (-200)
• Astros -1.5 (+162)

Moneyline

• Rangers: +104
• Astros: -127

Total

• 8.5 (Over -106/Under -115)

Rangers vs. Astros Probable Pitchers

• Texas: Jack Leiter (9-8, 3.81 ERA)
• Houston: Jason Alexander (4-1, 4.19 ERA)

Rangers vs. Astros How to Watch

• Date: Monday, Sept. 15
• Time: 8:10 p.m. EST
• Venue: Daikin Park
• How to Watch (TV): SCHN, RSN
• Rangers record: 79-71
• Astros record: 81-69

Rangers vs. Astros Best MLB Prop Bets

Rangers Best MLB Prop Bet

• Jack Leiter 3+ Walks (+138)

This prop is a bit of a long shot on Monday night, but Leiter has struggled with free passes all season, ranking in the 10th percentile in walk percentage in 2025.

The righty has allowed three or more walks in 12 of his 26 outings, including a four-walk showing against Houston earlier this season.

The Astros are just 25th in MLB in walks drawn this season, which gives me some pause in this market, but Leiter’s control issues are worth betting on at a plus-money price. 

Rangers vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s MLB best bets – Walk-Off Wagers – why Houston is worth a bet at home: 

A nine-game winning streak by the Seattle Mariners has knocked Houston out of the top spot in the AL West, and now it’s in danger of falling out of the playoff picture heading into an early-week series with the Texas Rangers.

Houston has just a two-game cushion on the Rangers for the final wild card spot in the AL, but it is favored at home on Monday.

I lean with the Astros (11 games over .500 at home) to win this game with Jason Alexander on the mound.

While Alexander’s numbers aren’t great – he has a 4.19 ERA and a 4.81 FIP – the Astros have won his last eight straight outings dating back to late July. 

Houston will face Jack Leiter (3.81 ERA), who has led Texas to a 10-16 record in his starts and has a much worse ERA on the road (4.45) in 2025. 

Not only that, but the Rangers are 11 games under .500 on the road in 2025. 

I lean with Houston to pick up a win at home in this series opener. 

Pick: Astros Moneyline (-127 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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