Raptors vs. Cavaliers Series Prediction, Odds, Best Bets for NBA Playoffs

Can Toronto hang around with Cleveland in the first round?

The Cleveland Cavaliers and guard Donovan Mitchell are favored in the first round of the playoffs. | David Richard-Imagn Images

Donovan Mitchell and the Cleveland Cavaliers are the No. 4 seed in the Eastern Conference, and they’ll take on a team they didn’t beat in the regular season – the Toronto Raptors – in the first round of the NBA Playoffs.

Toronto earned the No. 5 seed in the East, ranking fifth in the league in defensive rating and making the leap from the lottery to a clear-cut playoff team. The Raptors are massive underdogs in this series, despite sweeping the Cavs in the regular season. These teams haven’t played since November, and Cleveland looks a lot different with James Harden in the fold.

Harden was acquired in a deadline deal that sent Darius Garland to the Los Angeles Clippers, and he helped the Cavs post the No. 5 offense in the NBA since the All-Star break. The problem? Cleveland was just 18th in defensive rating during that same stretch. 

Cleveland is hoping to make it out of the second round of the playoffs for the first time since trading for Mitchell prior to the 2022-23 season. After earning the No. 1 seed in the East last season, Cleveland got off to a slow start that pushed it behind Detroit, Boston and New York in the standings. 

To help bettors wager on this series, SI’s NBA and betting experts are all sharing their takes for this matchup. 

But first, let’s check out the odds for this No. 5 vs. No. 4 showdown in the East. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Raptors vs. Cavaliers Series Odds

• Raptors: +400
• Cavs: -550

Based on the odds for this series, the Cavs have an implied probability of 84.62 percent to advance. 

Raptors vs. Cavaliers Series Spread

• Cavs -2.5 (+105)
• Raptors +2.5 (-1235)

Raptors vs. Cavaliers Series Correct Score

• Cavs in 5: +240
• Cavs in 4: +350
• Cavs in 7: +425
• Cavs in 6: +425
• Raptors in 6: +850
• Raptors in 7: +1100
• Raptors in 5: +2200
• Raptors in 4: +3500

Raptors vs. Cavaliers Series Total Games

• 5.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

This series could be a short one – the two most-likely outcomes are the Cavs winning in four or five games – but the series total is set at 5.5 with equal odds on both sides.

Raptors vs. Cavaliers Series Predictions

Peter Dewey

These teams haven’t faced each other since November, so I’m throwing out Toronto’s 3-0 record against Cleveland in the regular season.

The Raptors went just 2-16 against the top-three seeds in each conference during the regular season, and they were a .500 team after a 14-5 start, going 31-31 the rest of the way. Toronto does have the No. 5 defensive rating in the NBA, but it has some shooting questions on offense. 

Cleveland has plenty of questions in the Donovan Mitchell era, especially with James Harden now in the fold. The Cavs have not made it out of the second round with Mitchell, and they were just 18th in the league in defensive rating after the All-Star break. There is a world where the Cavs’ inability to get stops could cost them in this series.

However, Mitchell is the best player in this series, and Cleveland’s offense was the fifth-best in the league after the break. It would be a catastrophe for the Cavs to lose this series, and ultimately I don’t trust Toronto’s offense enough to win four games against a quality team. The Raptors were just 22-30 against teams .500 or better in the regular season. 

Pick: Cavs in 5 (-550. +240)

Chris Mannix

Am I wrong to think the Raptors are being underestimated? It felt like a lot of digital ink was spilled the last few days on how New York was bummed out to miss out on boat racing the hapless Raptors in the first round. Toronto has some dogs who will make life tough for Donovan Mitchell and James Harden on the perimeter. Brandon Ingram is a bucket and Scottie Barnes has a chance to level up in his second postseason series (He will have to if the Raptors offense has any hope of keeping up). Look, I still like the Cavs to win but this one will be a dogfight. 

Pick: Cavs in 7 (-550, +425)

Liam McKeone

The Raptors are truly terrifying defensively and Scottie Barnes would be getting more attention as a freak of nature on that end if not for the even bigger (literally) freak of nature in San Antonio. That gives Toronto a decent floor when paired with Brandon Ingram’s scoring skills and the occasional show of wild shot-making from Immanuel Quickley. 

It’s tempting to buy into the defense wins championships mantra and believe in this team’s ability to pull off an upset after drawing the Cavaliers in the first round. James Harden has earned his reputation as a playoff faller and Donovan Mitchell is quietly joining him in that department after flaming out every year in Cleveland thus far.There are enough defensive problems with those two that even a Raptors roster completely lacking perimeter creation outside of Ingram can attack them with success. 

But not that tempting. Toronto averaged fewer points per game this season than the freaking Grizzlies. This is not a playoff-caliber offense. The defensive junk the Raptors can throw at the Cavs will extend the series further than it should, though. 

Pick: Cavs in 7 (-550, +425)

Tyler Lauletta

It feels like the Cavs should be able to win every game of this series in which they don’t actively shoot themselves in the foot. I’m going to guess they shoot themselves in the foot twice.

Pick: Cavs in 6 (-550, +425)

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and get $300 in bonus bets instantly when you make your first $5 bet and that bet wins.