Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Thursday, Aug. 13

Don’t look now, but the reigning American League champs are making a push for a playoff spot in the 2026 season.

The Toronto Blue Jays are just 1.5 games out of the final wild card spot in the American League, and they’ve won three in a row over the Boston Red Sox heading into Thursday afternoon’s series finale.

Boston was the hottest team in baseball in July, but it has come back to earth in the last week, losing five games in a row. It still holds the No. 2 wild card in the AL, but the Sox are four games behind the New York Yankees for the top spot and 10 games behind the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East.

On Thursday, Boston turns to lefty Payton Tolle (3.20 ERA) to stop the bleeding against veteran right-hander Max Scherzer. Tolle has been great for the Sox in 2026, and they’ve won his last six outings. Can he break their losing streak this afternoon?

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Thursday’s AL East showdown.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Red Sox -1.5 (+108)
Blue Jays +1.5 (-130)

Moneyline

Red Sox: -155
Blue Jays: +144

Total

8 (Over -105/Under -115)

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Probable Pitchers

Boston: Payton Tolle (7-6, 3.20 ERA)
Toronto: Max Scherzer (1-4, 7.25 ERA)

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays How to Watch

Date: Thursday, Aug. 13
Time: 3:07 p.m. EST
Venue: Rogers Centre
How to Watch (TV): NESN, ESPN Unlimited, Sportsnet
Red Sox record: 64-56
Blue Jays record: 59-63

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Best MLB Prop Bets

Blue Jays Best MLB Prop Bet

Max Scherzer OVER 4.5 Hits Allowed (-160)

Scherzer has been solid in two starts this month, allowing nine hits and three runs in 11.1 innings of work, but he’s still allowed five or more hits in five of his nine outings despite the fact that he hasn’t pitched very deep into most games.

The veteran right-hander has a tough test against a Boston team that is 11th in MLB in batting average this season and sixth over the last 30 days.

Scherzer has an expected batting average against of .270 this season (14th percentile in MLB), so it wouldn’t be surprising if Boston was able to knock him around on Thursday. Even though he’s pitched better as of late, Scherzer is an easy fade candidate this season, since he’s allowing 10 hits per nine innings pitched.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick

Boston has dropped five games in a row, but it’s in a great spot to snap that skid on Thursday afternoon.

Payton Tolle has been one of the best pitchers in the American League this season, posting a 3.20 ERA while striking out 124 batters in 107.0 innings of work. He ranks in the 93rd percentile in expected ERA and the 88th percentile in expected batting average against.

So, Boston has a massive advantage on the mound with Scherzer getting the start for the Jays. The veteran right-hander has a 7.25 ERA in nine appearances this season, ranking in the eight percentile in expected ERA and the 14th percentile in expected BAA.

Toronto also has one of the worst offenses in MLB, sitting in 30th in OPS, 29th in runs scored and 28th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+). I can’t get behind the Jays with Scherzer on the mound, as they’ll likely need several runs to pull off the upset win.

Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (-155 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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