Red Sox vs. Marlins Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Tuesday, Aug. 25

The Boston Red Sox opened their series with the Miami Marlins with a 4-2 win, putting them just 2.5 games back of the New York Yankees for the top wild card spot in the American League.

Boston has now won four straight, and it’s been arguably the best team in baseball since July 1, going from a fringe playoff team to a near lock to make the postseason. Now, the Sox are looking to build on their postseason resume in a matchup with a Miami team that is on the outside looking in of the final wild card spot in the National League.

After Monday’s loss, the Marlins are two games back of the Arizona Diamondbacks (fourth in the NL wild card standings) and four games out of the third and final wild card spot, which is currently held by the San Diego Padres.

On Tuesday, the Marlins turn to right-hander Tyler Phillips (3.67 ERA) as they look to get back on track. He’ll have a tough matchup against Boston’s Payton Tolle (3.08 ERA), who has a 2.16 ERA in four starts this month.

Oddsmakers have set Boston as a road favorite in this matchup, and the Sox have been elite away from Fenway Park, going 38-27 in 2026.

Can they add to that record tonight?

Let’s take a look at the latest odds from the best betting sites, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this interleague clash.

Red Sox vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Red Sox -1.5 (+102)
Marlins +1.5 (-123)

Moneyline

Red Sox: -158
Marlins: +147

Total

7.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Red Sox vs. Marlins Probable Pitchers

Boston: Payton Tolle (8-6, 3.08 ERA)
Miami: Tyler Phillips (3-6, 3.67 ERA)

Red Sox vs. Marlins How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, Aug. 25
Time: 6:40 p.m. EST
Venue: loanDepot park
How to Watch (TV): NESN, Marlins.TV
Red Sox record: 72-59
Marlins record: 67-65

Red Sox vs. Marlins Best MLB Prop Bets

Red Sox Best MLB Prop Bet

Tyler Phillips OVER 4.5 Hits Allowed (-140)

This season, Phillips ranks in just the 18th percentile in expected batting average against (.264), allowing 96 hits in just over 100 innings of work. While Phillips has spent time as both a starter and a reliever, he's allowed five or more hits in nine of his 14 starts, including all three in the month of August.

Boston's offense has completely turned things around since the start of July, moving up to sixth in MLB in batting average for the season and first over the last 30 days. During that 30-day stretch, Boston is hitting .279 as a team.

That makes this a really tough matchup for Phillips, even if he only goes around five innings on Tuesday.

Red Sox vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick

On the surface, these starters seem to have pretty similar profiles.

Both have sub-4.00 ERAs, and the Red Sox are 11-10 in Tolle’s starts while the Marlins are 6-8 in Phillips’ starts (he’s also come out of the bullpen 17 times this season).

However, the advanced numbers favor Tolle in a major way. The Boston lefty ranks in the 95th percentile in expected ERA and the 92nd percentile in expected batting average against this season. For comparison, Phillips ranks in the 21st and 18th percentile in those respective categories.

Boston also happens to have the best bullpen ERA (2.90) in MLB this season, so Miami may struggle to score even once Tolle exits on Tuesday night.

Since July 1, Tolle has delivered seven starts with three or fewer earned runs, leading Boston to a 7-2 record in nine appearances.

Boston has quietly climbed the ranks in several offensive statistics, jumping from a bottom 10 team to 13th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+).

I don’t love fading the Marlins at home – they’re 15 games over .500 at loanDepot park – but Boston should be able to get to Phillips, who doesn’t exactly give the Marlins a ton of length when he starts.

I’ll trust the Sox and their pitching staff to win a fifth game in a row.

Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (-158 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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