Red Sox vs. Yankees Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for AL Wild Card Game 2

The New York Yankees dominated Game 1 of the American League Wild Card Round against the Boston Red Sox, scoring nine runs in a 9-0 win at home.

Now, New York is favored to close out this series in two games, and it moved all the way to +650 to win the World Series after Tuesday night’s victory.

Cam Schlittler (6.1 innings, two hits, 10K’s) and Ben Rice (two homers, three extra-base hits, six RBIs) led the way for the Bronx Bombers, who are now ahead of the Tampa Bay Rays in the odds to win the American League. New York would need to get through both Boston and Tampa Bay to reach the ALCS, but oddsmakers clearly believe in this Yankees team – even with Aaron Judge (calf) currently on the shelf.

In Game 2, New York has left-hander Max Fried (2.80 ERA) on the mound against Boston’s Sonny Gray (2.72 ERA). Boston fared well in Gray’s starts this season, going 21-8 overall. The right-hander finished the regular season with an expected ERA of 3.87 (60th percentile) and an expected batting average against of .249 (39th percentile).

Against the Yankees, Gray was pretty dominant, allowing just nine hits and three earned runs across 13.2 innings of work. He held the Yankees to just one hit in 7.1 innings the last time he faced them.

Meanwhile, injuries limited Fried to just 20 appearances in the 2026 regular season and two outings against Boston. He tossed eight scoreless innings of three-hit ball the first time he faced the Sox before allowing one run in 3.2 innings in his return from the injured list in August.

So, oddsmakers are expecting a pitcher’s duel on Wednesday, setting the total in this game at 6.5.

Let’s take a look at the latest odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this AL East rivalry matchup in Game 2.

Red Sox vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Red Sox +1.5 (-198)
Yankees -1.5 (+162

Moneyline

Red Sox: +113
Yankees: -137

Total

6.5 (Over -117/Under -102)

Red Sox vs. Yankees Probable Pitchers

Boston: Sonny Gray (18-5, 2.72 ERA)
New York: Max Fried (5-5, 2.80 ERA)

Red Sox vs. Yankees How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, Sept. 30
Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Yankee Stadium
How to Watch (TV): NBC
Series: New York leads 1-0

Red Sox vs. Yankees Best MLB Prop Bets

Yankees Best MLB Prop Bet

Max Fried UNDER 4.5 Hits Allowed (-120)

During the regular season, Fried allowed just 79 hits in 112.2 innings of work, posting an insane 0.99 WHIP. He allowed less than four hits in 11 of his 20 starts, including both of his outings against Boston (three hits in each game).

The Red Sox struggled mightily against Cam Schlittler in Game 1, mustering just two hits, and they finished with three total hits in the matchup. That is in line with a trend for Boston towards the end of the season, as it finished the last 30 days with the No. 29 batting average and the No. 28 OPS in MLB.

Fried has been pretty dominant in the 2026 season when he’s been healthy, and I’d expect New York to have a slightly shorter leash with him as it looks to close out this series in two games. I love the UNDER for the star lefty in his third postseason start as a Yankee.

Red Sox vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick

These teams were pretty even during the regular season – New York won seven of the 13 meetings – but Tuesday’s wild card matchup was as lopsided as they come.

Sure, the Yankees won’t have the AL Cy Young favorite (Schlittler) on the mound again, but Boston couldn’t get anything going at the dish, picking up just three hits while striking out 11 times. To make matters worse, Roman Anthony (hand) left the game with an injury.

Boston’s offense fell apart down the stretch of the regular season, and that continued into this playoff matchup.

Meanwhile, the Yankees showed no signs of slowing down, even with Judge out, scoring nine runs and picking up 12 hits. They also forced the Sox to use a ton of their bullpen after Payton Tolle lasted just 4.2 innings in Game 1.

That bodes well for the Yanks, who only used one high-leverage arm (Paul Blackburn) to close out the series opener. Fried and Gray may end up pretty even in the early innings, but Fried (98th percentile in expected ERA, 90th percentile in expected BAA) was by far the better pitcher in the regular season when it comes to his advanced stats.

I love New York’s lineup against right-handed pitching, as it’ll get Luis Garcia Jr. back in to protect Ben Rice. Give me the Yankees to close out this series on Wednesday night.

Pick: Yankees Moneyline (-137 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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