Road to 272 Bets: NFL Week 1 Picks for Every Game

Fall is in the air, days are getting shorter, football is on our televisions, and the Road to 272 Bets is BACK!

I have bet on every single NFL game for the past six seasons, and I'm ready to run it back for Year 7. 272 regular-season games, 272 bets. It's a long, grinding journey throughout the season, but it's my favorite thing I do all year.

Each Tuesday morning this season, you will get all of my best bets for the upcoming week of NFL action. You can either read my breakdowns in my written articles, or you can listen/watch me break down the picks in my weekly episode of the Bacon Bets Podcast. You can find it wherever you get your podcasts, and there's also a video version of the show on YouTube.

Heading into last year, I was in the green through the first five years of this challenge. Unfortunately, we had a truly horrific 2025 season, and it has brought my career record back down to the red.

2020: 130-119-7 (+5.79 units)
2021: 151-120-1 (+25.47 units)
2022: 128-135-9 (-12.32 units)
2023: 140-129-3 (+3.96 units)
2024: 131-135-6 (-13.45 units)
2025: 120-151-1 (-31.5 units)
Total: 800-789-27 (-22.05 units)

Before we begin my 2026 journey, here are the six rules that I have in place for myself:

I will place one bet on all 272 games
All 272 bets will be a one-unit flat bet
All bets will be on a spread, total, or moneyline underdog (no moneyline favorites)
Must place at least one moneyline underdog bet each week
All bets will be placed at regulated sportsbooks
All bets will be tracked on my Juice Reel account (@IainMacBets).

With that out of the way, and hopefully the worst season I'll ever have in this challenge behind us, it's time to begin the 2026 edition of the Road to 272 Bets.

NFL Week 1 Best Bets for Every Game

Patriots vs. Seahawks Prediction

I see absolutely no reason why we shouldn't ride with the defending Super Bowl champions in this game. I was big on the Seahawks in the Super Bowl, as I felt that these two teams weren't in the same tier, and I was proven right. Now, seven months later, I don't think enough has changed between the two teams for me to think things will be any different, especially with this now being a home game for the Seahawks.

The Patriots had a historically easy schedule last season and went 7-3 in one-score games. They had things break their way in the postseason, playing nothing but injured teams throughout the AFC side of the bracket. Now, they have a much tougher schedule, and it will be hard for them to replicate the same success in close games.

The Patriots are certainly better at wide receiver, but they have to face arguably the best defense in the NFL in this game. Will Campbell was overpowered in the Super Bowl, and I'm not so sure he's going to have a better game in the rematch.

If you don't bet on the Seahawks, you may feel silly for overthinking it by the midway point of the third quarter.

Pick: Seahawks-3.5 (+100)

49ers vs. Rams Prediction

After the offseason they had, there is more hype behind the Los Angeles Rams this season than I think I've ever seen for a team ahead of the opening kickoff. Maybe they'll end up being as good as advertised, but I think this is a perfect spot to sell high on hype. Until they prove they're as good as the betting market is treating them, I'm going to hang back when it comes to betting on them.

Not only that, but I'm high on the 49ers this season. They had some of the worst injury luck in football last year, but still managed to finish 10th in DVOA. Now, they're relatively healthy, and I expect them to overachieve relative to how the betting market is evaluating them.

Not only that, but this game is in Australia, and the Rams plan to do a "drive-by", showing up and immediately playing instead of arriving a few days ahead of time to acclimatize. I don't know if that's the smartest strategy for them to utilize.

I'll jump on the 49ers getting more than a field goal in this divisional matchup.

Pick: 49ers +3.5 (-105)

Bills vs. Texans Prediction

The Bills have added some key offensive pieces this offseason, most notably DJ Moore at wide receiver. On the other side of the ball, they're going to look extremely different with the likes of Matt Milano and Taron Johnson gone, while adding plenty of young pieces. The jury is out on whether or not that's going to make their defense better, but I think it's going to take them a few weeks to hit their stride. Meanwhile, I think the Bills' offense is going to look as explosive as ever.

My Week 1 strategy is going to be to generally fade the common narrative around the assumed best units in the NFL. The Rams fall under that banner, as I wrote about above, but so does the Texans' defense. Yes, they're likely once again going to be an elite defense, but are they good enough to justify a point total this low in a Week 1 game against the MVP favorite?

The Texans' offense is going to be healthy and I expect them to surprise some people and be more effective than some bettors assume.

I'm going to bet the OVER in this fascinating AFC showdown.

Pick: OVER 44.5 (-109)

Saints vs. Lions Prediction

I'm ready to fade this Saints team early in the season. Pundits across the country have been hyping the Saints up this offseason because of a strong end to their 2025 campaign. Not enough people have talked about the fact that four of their last five games were wins against the likes of the Buccaneers, Panthers, Jets, and Titans. They also lost to the Falcons (twice) and the Dolphins in their final seven weeks after the BYE. They didn't show any level of competence against a good team, so I'm not ready to crown them the bounce-back team of the season.

Meanwhile, the Detroit Lions are my Super Bowl pick. They were better than their record showed last season, finishing the year third in DVOA and sixth in Net Yards per Play. The loss of David Montgomery is an addition by subtraction, as Jahmyr Gibbs will now get more chances to showcase his game-changing capabilities.

I think the Lions win this one in a blowout.

Pick: Lions -6.5 (-120)

Jets vs. Titans Prediction

Let's remember that the New York Jets were dead last in the NFL in 2025 in DVOA. So, what did one of the worst teams in the NFL do? Did they scrap the roster, fire their head coach, and become younger to begin a rebuild? No, they kept their head coach and added a ton of old players who are past their prime, like Geno Smith, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Demario Davis, and David Onyemata. That's a bold strategy; let's see if it works out for them.

Meanwhile, the Titans cleaned house and brought in Robert Saleh, who I still think can be a great NFL head coach. People forget that the Jets' defense was one of the best in the NFL when he was with them, and they haven't been the same since they fired him.

I'll take the Titans as short home favorites.

Pick: Titans -1.5 (-108)

Buccaneers vs. Bengals Prediction

Much like people are too focused on the Saints' second half of the 2025 season, people are too quick to forget the Buccaneers' first half of last season. They were the clear best team in the NFC South and were up there as one of the better teams in the NFC. Unfortunately, injuries, close losses, and a banged-up Baker Mayfield caught up to them, but I'm back in on the Bucs heading into this season.

Meanwhile, the Bengals have a history of starting slow in the Zac Taylor era, and I'm not fully convinced they have addressed their issues on defense. I think the spread should be inside a field goal, so with the Buccaneers getting four points, I'm going to back Tampa Bay.

Pick: Buccaneers +4 (-110)

Browns vs. Jaguars Prediction

I'm heading into this season with the belief that parity is at a level we haven't seen in recent history. Very little separates the best teams and the teams that will miss the playoffs, except for a few exceptions. While parity is high, there are a handful of teams that are extraordinarily bad this season, and I believe the Cleveland Browns belong in that group, especially with Kevin Stefanski no longer there and Deshaun Watson in at quarterback. Myles Garrett is also in Los Angeles, leaving their defense with no player to leave on the field.

The Jaguars ended last season sixth in DVOA, and their defense might be the most underrated unit in the NFL. I think they blow past the Browns in this one.

Pick: Jaguars -7.5 (-110)

Falcons vs. Steelers Prediction

I wish I knew which quarterback was starting for the Falcons before I place this bet, but it's one of the downsides of having to lock in my bets early in the week. With that being said, I'm going to take the points with the Falcons.

I don't think either of these teams is very good, but the Falcons have a higher upside with offensive weapons like Bijan Robinson and Drake London. The Steelers unfortunately have to rely on Aaron Rodgers for another season; he was a shell of his former self last year, and now he's another year older at 42. Athletes typically don't improve from a previous season at this age.

I also wouldn't be surprised to see the Steelers regress this season now that they've moved on from Mike Tomlin. I'm not sure that Mike McCarthy is a better coach.

With the spread set at north of a field goal, I'll take the points with Atlanta.

Pick: Falcons +3.5 (-110)

Ravens vs. Colts Prediction

All offseason, I've been talking about how I'm surprised the betting market is extremely on the Baltimore Ravens this season. They have the best odds to make the playoffs among all 32 teams, despite firing their longtime head coach in the offseason and coming off a year where Lamar Jackson looked far worse than his usual self. I can recognize he was battling injuries, but a 63.6% completion percentage and only 196.1 passing yards per game, while having his rushing yards per game cut in half from a year ago, is concerning to me. Derrick Henry also isn't getting any younger, and the interior of their offensive line is a huge question mark heading into this season.

Then there are the Colts, who have Daniel Jones returning as their quarterback after suffering an injury last year, and they lost Michael Pittman Jr. to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

I think we're going to see both offenses struggle in this one. I also think we'll see an improved Ravens defense under Jesse Minter.

I'll bet the UNDER.

Pick: UNDER 48.5 (-115)

Bears vs. Panthers Prediction

My upset pick of the week is on the Carolina Panthers to beat the Chicago Bears outright. I have been pointing at the Bears as my No. 1 regression candidate all season, so it'd be hypocritical of me if I didn't pick them to lose in the opening week.

I’ve never been more confident about a team regressing than I am about the Chicago Bears this season
— Iain MacMillan (@IainMacBets) September 4, 2026

I have a lot of issues with this Bears team and their ability to replicate their season from a year ago. They went 7-4 in one-score games last season, and six of their wins came in games where they were down with two minutes or less to go. They also led the entire NFL in average turnover differential per game at +0.9. Those two factors alone are going to be extremely difficult to replicate, so they'll have to be a much better team to have another strong record.

Unfortunately, they lost one of their best receivers, DJ Moore, and their defense got inarguably worse. I also want to point out that Caleb Williams had some exciting late-game heroics last season, but he finished the year 20th in adjusted EPA per play and 29th in completion percentage over expected. Those are worrying, to say the least.

I'd be lying if I said I think the Panthers are the better team, but with them being set as home underdogs in an unpredictable Week 1, I'll take a chance on Carolina upsetting the team I most expect to take a step back in 2026.

Pick: Panthers +140

Commanders vs. Eagles Prediction

While I still believe the Eagles are the team to beat in the NFC East this season, there are still some things they have to prove to me before I'm ready to lay points on them. First of all, can they find a way to replace A.J. Brown's production at wide receiver with him now in New England? Also, I can't mention the Bears' record in one-score games without mentioning that the Eagles had an even better record in one-score games at 8-4.

Meanwhile, the Washington Commanders have filled some holes on their roster and are much healthier than they were a year ago. They need Jayden Daniels to get back to his 2024 form, but entering this season healthy should go a long way toward doing that.

I'm going to take the points with Washington.

Pick: Commanders +5.5 (-108)

Dolphins vs. Raiders Prediction

I think the easy thing to do in this game is to point out that this is a matchup between two bad teams, so why wouldn't you take the team that's getting a field-goal-worth of points? I hesitate to follow that logic because let's consider that these two teams are in two different stages of a rebuild.

The Miami Dolphins completely stripped both their roster and coaching staff this offseason and are starting fresh in what is one of the most purposeful rebuilds I've ever seen in the NFL. For management, a bad season that earns a top pick would be a best-case scenario for the franchise's future. Take a moment and look at their roster for this year. It's one of the worst I've ever seen.

Meanwhile, the Raiders are a couple of years into their rebuild and are now looking to take a step forward. They have offensive weapons like Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty, and while Kirk Cousins is past his prime, he's more than a serviceable option at quarterback until Fernando Mendoza is ready to take over.

I think some people are going to be surprised by how bad the Dolphins look in this game.

Pick: Raiders -3.5 (+100)

Packers vs. Vikings Prediction

Is Kyler Murray going to fix all of the Vikings' problems? Are they a competent quarterback away from being a playoff team? Maybe, but I need to see him look like his former self before I bet on them. With that said, I'm going to bet on a Packers team that I think is being slept on heading into this season. They don't seem to step up in big games when they need to, which has hurt the public's perception of them, but this is still a team that was sixth in offensive DVOA and seventh in Net Yards per Play a year ago.

In a near coin-flip game, I'm going to take the team that has a quarterback I can trust more in this Week 1 showdown.

Pick: Packers +1.5 (-110)

Cardinals vs. Chargers Prediction

I simply can't get behind a double-digit favorite in a Week 1 game. That has disaster written all over it, especially with seemingly every year there being one major upset in the opening week. That's why, instead of a side in this one, I'm going to look to the total and bet the OVER.

The Chargers' offense may be entering its peak this season. Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater are healthy, and now Mike McDaniel takes over as offensive coordinator. This could be one of the most fun offenses to watch in football this season. Meanwhile, the Chargers' defense will have to try to move on from defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, who is now the head coach of Baltimore. It may take them a few weeks to hit their stride.

For the Cardinals, I have a lot of concerns about their defense, which was one of the worst in the league a season ago, but you can't deny the fact that they have some weapons on offense. Between Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson, Trey McBride, and a one-two punch in the backfield between Jeremiyah Love and Tyler Allgeier, they can move the ball down the field.

I'll sit back and root for points in this one.

Pick: OVER 46.5 (-115)

Cowboys vs. Giants Prediction

I'm not ready to buy the hype on the New York Giants. I understand that John Harbaugh is going to do a lot of things to change the culture for the better, but have Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo proven enough to the point that they should only be slight underdogs against one of the best offenses in football from last season? I'm not buying it.

If the Cowboys can make defensive adjustments this year while matching last year's offensive production, they'll be a dangerous team to face.

Pick: Cowboys -2.5 (-118)

Broncos vs. Chiefs Prediction

This is a fascinating game for several reasons. Not only did the Denver Broncos break the Kansas City Chiefs' nine-year AFC West reign last season, but the Broncos are now trying to prove that last year was a fluke, and the Chiefs are trying to prove it was. Patrick Mahomes will be back healthy and looking to return to his MVP form. Finally, this is a game between a team that went 11-2 in one-score games a year ago, the best mark in football, and a team that went 1-9 in one-score games, the worst mark in football.

Everything that could have gone the Broncos' way last season, did, while everything that could have gone wrong for the Chiefs went wrong. That's why I'm thinking about more than last year's results. The Chiefs are healthy and the better team from top to bottom. I'll back them as slight home favorites in the Week 1 edition of Monday Night Football.

Pick: Chiefs -2.5 (-115)

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