Road to 272 Bets: NFL Week 7 Picks for Every Game

After a disastrous first three weeks of the 2026 season, we have strung together three straight profitable weeks to slow begin to chip away out our losses. Week 6 of the Road to 272 Bets was good to us, going 8-6, including nailing my upset bet on the Titans to beat the Colts, but we still have a ways to go to get back to the green on the season.

We move on to Week 7, another 14-game slate. Let's keep the momentum on our side.

If you want to listen to the audio version of this week's picks, including some more in-depth analysis, check out the latest episode of Bacon Bets wherever you get your podcasts. You can also get a list of all my picks and where I bet them on Juice Reel. Finally, you can check it out to find the six rules I follow for this challenge.

Road to 272 Bets Record

Week 6: 8-6 (+2.99 units)
Season-to-date: 43-48-2 (-5.63 units)

NFL Week 7 Best Bets for Every Game

Patriots vs. Bears Prediction

Unless I'm missing something, I'm not quite sure why the total for this game is in the 50s. Sure, the Bears' offense is much more explosive with Caleb Williams at quarterback, but even with that being the case, these two offenses rank 12th and 14th in EPA per play this season and seventh and 12th in success rate. A high total would make sense if the two defenses in this game were bad, but they rank in the top half of the league in most metrics. In fact, the Bears' defense comes into this game ranking fourth in opponent success rate.

The Patriots' offense is also dealing with some injuries. A.J. Brown is questionable, and Romeo Doubs is on IR. Their run game can't be relied on to help out the injuries at wide receiver, as it's been largely ineffective all season.

I'll bet the UNDER on Thursday Night Football for the second straight week.

Pick: UNDER 50.5 (-105) via DraftKings

Steelers vs. Saints Prediction

The Steelers' run game against the Saints' run defense will be the biggest difference-maker in this game. Pittsburgh has done a great job running the football this season, ranking fifth in rush EPA, and Jaylen Warren is averaging 5.5 yards per carry. Now they face a Saints defense that's last in both opponent rush EPA and opponent rush success rate, while also giving up 4.8 yards per rush. If Warren can be effective on the ground, the Saints' offense will struggle to keep pace.

The Steelers' defense is top 10 in the NFL in both opponent EPA per play and opponent success rate. Let's hope that defense travels.

I'm going to back the Steelers as favorites in France.

Pick: Steelers -3 (-115) via Caesars

Giants vs. Texans Prediction

The No. 1 thing that immediately sticks out to me when it comes to these two teams in their difference in their strengths of schedule. Sure, the Texans may be 2-4, and the Giants are 3-2-1, but the Texans have had the sixth most difficult schedule so far this season, with games against the likes of the Bills, Bengals, Cowboys, and Jaguars. Meanwhile, the Giants have had the third-easiest schedule in the league with games against the Titans, Cardinals, Commanders, and Saints.

The Houston offense continues to look like a completely different unit as long as Nico Collins remains healthy. Its defense has had a slow start, but I still have faith they'll be one of the best defenses in the NFL for the rest of the way. They'll be able to put the Giants' quarterback in a blender, no matter who it ends up being on Sunday.

I don't mind laying the points on Houston.

Pick: Texans -9.5 (-110) via BetRivers

49ers vs. Falcons Prediction

Until the Falcons' secondary gets healthy, they're going to get torched by any competent quarterback, and this week they have to take on an MVP candidate in Brock Purdy, which will be the Falcons' toughest test yet.

I also have some concerns about Michael Penix Jr. After a few strong starts to begin his 2026 season, his accuracy issues have shown up again, and his completion percentage over expected numbers has been dreadful the past two weeks.

The Falcons are in over their head in this game, and I'm surprised the line is set at just a field goal.

Pick: 49ers -3 (-120) via TheScore Bet

Buccaneers vs. Panthers Prediction

It's time to sell high on this Panthers team. Their offense has been phenomenal to start the year, but I have plenty of questions surrounding the ability of some of the defenses they've had to face. Once they started facing top-10 defenses, I wouldn't be surprised to see them significantly regress. It could start this weekend when they take on a Tampa Bay defense that's fourth in opponent EPA per play and eighth in opponent success rate.

I'm going to get in on the Bucs early this week and hope that Baker Mayfield ends up returning to action. If he starts on Sunday, we'll likely get some nice closing line value on the Buccaneers.

Pick: Buccaneers +154 via DraftKings

Browns vs. Titans Prediction

Oh god, what a disaster of a matchup. I'll set the OVER/UNDER on the number of plays shown in this game on RedZone at 4.5.

I guess I'll take the Browns, but I wouldn't feel confident in any bet in this game. Despite the Titans cashing as a huge underdog upset for us last week, I can't fathom betting on them against almost any team with the line set below the field goal.

These two teams have a lot of similarities. Both quarterbacks are in the bottom 10; neither team can run the ball, but both are solid defensively. Overall, the Browns are just the slightly better version. Deshaun Watson's numbers are a tad better than Cam Ward's, and their defense comes in at seventh in opponent EPA and eighth in opponent success rate. That's enough for me to give the edge to the Browns at -1.5.

Pick: Browns -1.5 (-108) via FanDuel

Bengals vs. Ravens Prediction

As I've written about already in this article, this is the week when I really start looking at strength of schedule, betting against teams who have had it easy through the first six weeks and betting on teams who have had it tough. No one has had it easier than the Baltimore Ravens, who have started their season against the Colts, Saints, Cowboys, Titans, Falcons, and Browns. Now they'll face their best competition yet, the Bengals, who are going to be feeling fresh off their BYE.

Lamar Jackson's status for this game is up in the air, but we can assume, based on the betting line, that the market believes he'll play. If he does sit out, we're going to end up with a great line with Cincinnati +3.

The Bengals are seventh in EPA per play and 13th in opponent EPA per play while playing a much more difficult schedule than the Ravens. I think they can at least keep this game within a field goal, if not win it outright.

Pick: Bengals +3 (-120) via TheScore Bet

Dolphins vs. Jets Prediction

We all know the Dolphins aren't a good football team, but I'd make the argument we don't know yet know if they're just a normal bad team, or the worst team in the league. Yes, they're 0-5 to begin the season, but their games have come against the Raiders, 49ers, Chiefs, Vikings, and Bengals. That means they've played three undefeated teams, and two teams who will be battling for a playoff spot. This is their first game this season that will come against a team that's anywhere close to their caliber.

The Jets certainly have some redeeming qualities, especially on defense, but they're not a team that's going to be winning any blowouts this season. Let's see if the Dolphins can hang with them in this AFC East battle.

Pick: Dolphins +5.5 (-110) via TheScore Bet

Colts vs. Vikings Prediction

I'm starting to think the Colts are a bottom-three team in the NFL, but people haven't realized it yet. Heading into Week 7, they're 31st in net yards per play (-1.3), 21st in EPA per play, and 28th in opponent EPA per play. Their only redeeming quality has been Jonathan Taylor. If it wasn't for JT, their offensive numbers would be in the bottom five as well.

If I close my eyes and think about this matchup, all I can envision is the Vikings' defense living in the Colts' backfield. Not only are they going to blitz Daniel Jones into oblivion, but they also lead the league in both opponent rush EPA and opponent rush success rate, meaning they're perfectly equipped to stop the one weapon Indianapolis has.

The Vikings offense has me a bit concerned, but I'm hoping Kyler Murray can find some momentum after a BYE week.

Pick: Vikings -5.5 (-118) via FanDuel

Broncos vs. Cardinals Prediction

You can throw all of the Broncos' middling metrics out the window, because no team has had a tougher schedule to begin the season than Denver. They've faced the Chiefs, Jaguars, Rams, 49ers, Chargers, and Seahawks, and came out on the other end of that run with a 4-2 record. Despite playing that good a record, their defense still ranks sixth in opponent EPA per play and fifth in opponent success rate. Just imagine how good this defense is going to look when facing lower-tier competition.

The Cardinals may be coming off the upset of the year over the Los Angeles Rams, but they enter this week ranking dead last in the NFL in net yards per play at -1.4. Their offense is solid at times, but their defense remains one of the worst units in the league.

Give me the Broncos as road favorites.

Pick: Broncos -4.5 (-105) via BetMGM

Packers vs. Lions Prediction

We all know how bad the Lions' defense has been this season, but they're getting some reinforcement coming off their BYE week. Their star safety, Brian Branch, is set to make his first start of the season since suffering an injury last year. While he may not be able to completely turn this defense around himself, his boost to their secondary can't be understated.

All he has to do is help the Lions' defense force even just a few more punts, and if he can do that, Detroit is going to be in great shape. Their offense is one of the best in the league, ranking sixth in EPA per play and fifth in success rate.

I think we're going to see a much-improved Lions team coming out of the BYE.

Pick: Lions -3 (-105) via DraftKings

Rams vs. Raiders Prediction

I know that the Rams now have a laundry list of injuries on top of looking extremely lackluster to begin the season, but I still think this is a good price to bet on them against the Raiders.

Las Vegas may have fooled us earlier in the year into making us think they're a potential playoff team, and even their recent losses made them look like a respectable squad. Unfortunately, I'm completely out on them. Their underlying metrics are huge red flags entering Week 7. They rank 26th in net yards per play (-0.7), 25th in opponent EPA, and 27th in opponent success rate.

Kirk Cousins has looked great for them at quarterback, but if he stops producing at a high level, their results are going to fall off a cliff due to their inability to run the ball. They rank just 27th in rush EPA and 29th in rush success rate.

It's time to buy back in on the Rams.

Pick: Rams -4.5 (-105) via DraftKings

Chiefs vs. Seahawks Prediction

I'm starting to have some very real concerns about the Seahawks' offense, starting with Sam Darnold. Entering Week 7, he ranks 27th in adjusted EPA per play and 16th in completion percentage over expected, far worse than where he ranked in those two metrics during their Super Bowl run a year ago.

I could look past that if they were able to run the ball successfully, but they can't do that either, ranking last in rush EPA and 25th in rush success rate. That leaves them with little answer on offense outside of throwing the ball at Jaxson Smith-Njigba and hoping he can work his magic.

Meanwhile, in case you didn't already know, the Chiefs are back. They're first in the league in net yards per play (+1.9) and the only team to rank in the top five in offensive EPA, defensive EPA, offensive success rate, and defensive success rate.

I'll take the Chiefs to win outright on Sunday Night Football.

Pick: Chiefs +120 via DraftKings

Cowboys vs. Eagles Prediction

As I've written about before in this series, I simply can't bet on the Cowboys when they're laying points, even if it's against a decimated Eagles team. Not only does Dallas have the worst defense in the NFL, but their offense hasn't held up their end of the bargain the past two weeks. They now rank 23rd in the NFL in net yards per play at -0.5.

Any bet on the Eagles right now is an ugly one, but I'm much lower on the Cowboys than the market seems to be. I'll take the points with the home team.

Pick: Eagles +5 (-109) via BetRivers

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