Road to the Final Four: March Madness Predictions, Picks for Friday’s Sweet 16 Games

We're halfway through the Sweet 16 and we have more games to go tonight but we look ahead to the Elite Eight tomorrow.

I'm continuing my journey of betting on every single game in the NCAA Tournament. Let's see if we can keep the momentum going tonight.

I have my bets locked in for tonight's for game, it's time for me to break them down.

March Madness Best Bets for Every Sweet 16 Game on Friday

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St. John's vs. Duke Prediction

St. John's has an elite front court, and the Red Storm are one of the best defenses in the country, but their sub-par shooting has come back to haunt them at times, and almost cost them in the Round of 32 against Kansas. St. John's ranks just 197th in effective field goal percentage, far below Duke, which comes in at 13th in that metric.

The Blue Devils are able to not only match St. John's defensively but even surpass them. Duke enters the Sweet 16 leading the entire country in defensive efficiency.

The one argument against Duke is that it's clear the Blue Devils haven't peaked at the right time. Despite winning the ACC Tournament, they weren't winning games in impressive fashion, and almost losing to Siena in the opening round further cemented people's doubts about whether or not the Blue Devils have it in them to make a Final Four run. With that being said, they've had a few days off and can regroup, hoping to come out firing.

St. John's can overpower teams that can't match them defensively, which makes a team like Duke a nightmare matchup for them. I'll lay the points with the Blue Devils.

Pick: Duke -6.5 (-110) via Caesars

Alabama vs. Michigan Prediction

The Alabama Crimson Tide had some questionable losses down the final stretch of the regular season, but they proved against Texas Tech in the Round of 32 that when their shooting is on, they're a tough team for opponents to face.

The biggest thing to look at when handicapping a game involving Alabama is how its opponent does in defending the 3-point shot. The Crimson Tide have the highest 3-point shot rate in the country, with 53.9% of their shots coming from beyond the arc. Michigan currently ranks 30th in opponent 3-point field goal percentage, allowing its opponents to shoot 30.8% from beyond the arc.

Alabama's volatile shooting makes them tough to figure out when it comes to the spread, but it also opens the door for the backdoor cover if they're down late and cash a few threes in the final minutes. I'll take the points with the Crimson Tide and hope they can find some level of success from the perimeter.

Pick: Alabama +9.5 (-112) via FanDuel

Michigan State vs. UConn Prediction

Both teams involved in this game are better defensively than offensively. Michigan State and UConn rank 35th and 66th in effective field goal percentage but 13th and 40th in defensive efficiency. Both teams also play at a slow pace, ranking 243rd and 322nd in adjusted tempo.

With this being a matchup between two legendary coaches in Izzo and Dan Hurley, I also expected both of them to have drawn up strong defensive game plans.

With all of that in mind, I think we're in for a low-scoring game. I'll take the UNDER.

Pick: UNDER 134.5 (-110) via BetMGM

Tennessee vs. Iowa State Prediction

In terms of the game itself, keep an eye on the turnovers by Tennessee. As good as the Volunteers are defensively, they turn the ball over on 16.8% of their possessions, which ranks 219th in the country. That's bad news against an Iowa State team that ranks fourth in opponent turnovers per possession, forcing a turnover on 22% of their opponents' possessions.

That, paired with the Vols ranking just 151st in effective field goal percentage, is going to make for a tough night for them against a Cyclones team with very few, if any, weaknesses.

I'm going to back the Cyclones as favorites.

Pick: Iowa State -3.5 (-110) via BetMGM

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