Road to the Final Four: March Madness Predictions, Picks for Saturday’s Final Four Games

Throughout the NCAA Tournament, I've been betting on every single game. We got off to a rough start, but caught fire in the Elite Eight, going 4-0 with my bets.

We now have just three games left to bet on before another season of college basketball is in the books. Let's keep the momentum going from the Elite Eight and turn it into a profitable Final Four. It's time to lock in my bets.

Final Four Best Bets

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

UConn +115 vs. Illinois
Arizona +105 vs. Michigan

Illinois vs. UConn Prediction

There's no denying that Illinois can match any other team in the country offensively, but its defense is going to cost it in this game. The Fighting Illini rank just 69th in the country in defensive efficiency. By comparison, the Huskies are 14th in that metric, giving them a huge defensive advantage in this Final Four matchup.

I also have a lot more faith in a team that's led by Dan Hurley, a coach who has delivered two National Championships over the past three seasons and is now back in the Final Four, fresh off a win against the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament.

Let's also not forget that UConn has already dominated Illinois once this season, beating them by a score of 74-61 back on November 28.

There's enough there for me to back the Huskies to win as slight underdogs.

Pick: UConn +115

Arizona vs. Michigan Prediction

In a game between the two best teams in college basketball, with a spot in the National Championship on the line, one single weakness shown by either side could end up being the difference. With that in mind, it's important to take a look at the turnover rate for the Michigan Wolverines. Not only do they rank in the bottom half of all teams in turnovers per possession, but they also rank near the bottom in forcing turnovers themselves, leading to them averaging -0.6 extra scoring chances per game

Compare that to the Arizona Wildcats, who do a much better job of creating extra scoring chances, averaging +3.4 per game, which is good for 30th in the country.

In a matchup that's largely splitting hairs, evidenced by the minuscule spread, I'm going to back the side that could end up with a few extra possessions, which could make all the difference when it comes to locking up a berth in the NCAA Tournament final.

Pick: Arizona +105

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