Road to the NBA Finals: NBA Playoff Predictions, Picks for Every Game 3 on Friday

Friday’s NBA playoff action features three massive games, as both No. 2 seeds in the playoffs are tied 1-1 in their respective series.

The Boston Celtics are looking to rebound from a home loss to the Philadelphia 76ers in Game 2, and they’re set as 7.5-point road favorites in Friday’s matchup.

In the other No. 2 vs. No. 7 matchup, the San Antonio Spurs are small favorites on the road with Victor Wembanyama (concussion) questionable for Game 3. Portland upset the Spurs after Wemby exited in Game 2, and San Antonio’s odds to win the series have shrunk from -2000 to -550 due to the MVP candidate’s injury.

Lastly, LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers are once again underdogs against the Houston Rockets despite taking a 2-0 series lead into Game 3. Houston is in danger of blowing this matchup even with Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves missing the first two games of the series, but it did go 30-11 at home in the 2025-26 regular season.

This postseason, I’m challenging myself to bet on every NBA playoff game in SI Betting’s Road to the NBA Finals.

Here’s a quick reminder of the rules, before I dive into today’s picks.

Bet on every game through the play-in tournament and playoffs
Bet can be a spread, total, moneyline, player prop or game prop
ENJOY POSTSEASON BASKETBALL!

I’m eyeing two road teams to headline Friday’s picks, and there’s a chance we could see one of the higher seeds in danger by the end of the night.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Boston Celtics -7.5 (-108) vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Boston is worth a bet on the road after losing Game 2:

During the regular season, Boston was one of the best teams in the NBA as a road favorite, going 16-8 against the spread with an average scoring margin of +12.1 in those games.

So, I don’t mind jumping back on the C’s to win and cover in Game 3 after Philly shot the lights out in Game 2. After making less than 20 percent of their 3-pointers in Game 1, the Sixers made 19 3-pointers in Game 2 and shot 48.7 percent from beyond the arc.

That’s an unsustainable number, and Boston shot just 26.0 percent from 3 in Game 2 to lose. The C’s still had Game 2 within two points in the fourth quarter, and only Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown scored in double figures in that game.

I expect an all-around bounce-back showing from Boston, especially since the Sixers are just 6-8 against the spread as home underdogs this season.

The Celtics have become notorious for losing home games in the playoffs, but they’ve responded pretty well in Game 3s, going 6-2 in those matchups over the last four postseasons.

Deni Avdija OVER 23.5 Points (-109)

Portland Trail Blazers All-Star Deni Avdija had 30 points in the team’s Game 1 loss to San Antonio, but he took a step back – partially due to foul trouble in Game 2 – dropping just 14 points on 13 shots.

I’m going to buy low on Avdija in this game, as he may face less defensive resistance at the rim with Victor Wembanyama dealing with a concussion. The Spurs still have a plethora of elite defenders, but Wembanyama is a one-man defense at the rim with his size and length.

Avdija averaged 24.2 points per game in the regular season, and I’d expect him to take more than 13 shots in this Game 3 matchup. In fact, he’s scored 25 or more points in eight of his last nine games, including 41 in the play-in tournament.

Los Angeles Lakers +9.5 (-108) vs. Houston Rockets

Another bet from Peter’s Points on Friday, I can’t help but think the Lakers are undervalued on the road after taking a 2-0 series lead:

Are the Lakers undervalued on the road in Game 3?

Los Angeles pulled out back-to-back wins as a home underdog against the Rockets in Games 1 and 2, and it’s now nearly a double-digit underdog in Game 3. I simply can’t lay this many points with the Houston offense struggling the way it is. The Lakers forced Kevin Durant into nine turnovers in his return in Game 2, and the Rockets have failed to reach 100 points in both games so far in this series.

Even with the Lakers down Doncic, LeBron James and Luke Kennard have done enough to create shots on offense, and L.A.’s defense is a little tougher to crack without the two star guards.

Houston’s offense has been a mess for a good portion of the season, and the lack of shooting – especially if Ime Udoka benches Reed Sheppard again – makes the Rockets really hard to trust when favored by this much.

During the regular season, Houston was an NBA-worst 17-24 against the spread at home, including a 16-22 ATS record as a home favorite. I will gladly take the points in what should be another low-scoring affair on Friday.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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