Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for VJ Edgecombe, Celtics-76ers, Lakers-Rockets)

Who would’ve thought that the Los Angeles Lakers would be up 2-0 in their first-round series while the No. 2 seeds in each conference would be tied 1-1 heading into Friday’s three-game slate?

Friday’s NBA Playoff Games

Boston Celtics vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Houston Rockets
San Antonio Spurs vs. Portland Trail Blazers

Luka Doncic (hamstring) and Joel Embiid (appendectomy, doubtful) are expected to sidelined on Friday, though Victor Wembanyama (concussion, questionable) has a chance to play. Plus, Austin Reaves (oblique, questionable) is making strides towards a return.

Boston is a road favorite in Game 3 against the Sixers, but Philly had a commanding road win on Tuesday night to even the series. Do the C’s bounce back with Embiid still out?

Meanwhile, the Spurs are in trouble if Wembanyama doesn't play, and they fell apart down the stretch in Tuesday’s Game 2 loss without him. San Antonio went from a double-digit favorite in Games 1 and 2 to a 2.5-point favorite on Friday.

Oddsmakers are also expecting the Houston Rockets to bounce back after dropping back-to-back games in L.A., as they’re heavily favored in Game 3.

I’m eyeing a few bets for Friday's playoff games, including a player prop for rookie VJ Edgecombe, who went off in Game 2.

Let’s dive into the picks for Friday’s Game 3 action!

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 266-226 (-0.27 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1557-1464-27 (+32.88 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

VJ Edgecombe OVER 14.5 Points (-120)
Los Angeles Lakers +9.5 (-108) vs. Houston Rockets
Boston Celtics -7.5 (-108) vs. Philadelphia 76ers

VJ Edgecombe OVER 14.5 Points (-120)

Edgecombe was the best player on the floor in Game 2, dropping 30 points, 10 rebounds and two assists, knocking down six of his 10 shots from beyond the arc.

The Sixers rookie has been fearless all season long, and he could be in line for another major workload in Game 3 if Boston continues to deploy drop coverage on the Sixers’ guards. Edgecombe took 16 shots in Game 1 – scoring 13 points – and he followed that up with a 20-shot attempt game on Tuesday.

After averaging 16.0 points per game in the regular season, Edgecombe is clearly capable of clearing this line against a Boston defense that has struggled to guard him in the 2025-26 season. The rookie had 34, 17, six and 23 points in his four regular-season meetings with the C’s.

I’ll take him to come near his season average in Game 3.

Los Angeles Lakers +9.5 (-108) vs. Houston Rockets

Are the Lakers undervalued on the road in Game 3?

Los Angeles pulled out back-to-back wins as a home underdog against the Rockets in Games 1 and 2, and it’s now nearly a double-digit underdog in Game 3. I simply can’t lay this many points with the Houston offense struggling the way it is. The Lakers forced Kevin Durant into nine turnovers in his return in Game 2, and the Rockets have failed to reach 100 points in both games so far in this series.

Even with the Lakers down Doncic, LeBron James and Luke Kennard have done enough to create shots on offense, and L.A.’s defense is a little tougher to crack without the two star guards.

Houston’s offense has been a mess for a good portion of the season, and the lack of shooting – especially if Ime Udoka benches Reed Sheppard again – makes the Rockets really hard to trust when favored by this much.

During the regular season, Houston was an NBA-worst 17-24 against the spread at home, including a 16-22 ATS record as a home favorite. I will gladly take the points in what should be another low-scoring affair on Friday.

Boston Celtics -7.5 (-108) vs. Philadelphia 76ers

During the regular season, Boston was one of the best teams in the NBA as a road favorite, going 16-8 against the spread with an average scoring margin of +12.1 in those games.

So, I don’t mind jumping back on the C’s to win and cover in Game 3 after Philly shot the lights out in Game 2. After making less than 20 percent of their 3-pointers in Game 1, the Sixers made 19 3-pointers in Game 2 and shot 48.7 percent from beyond the arc.

That’s an unsustainable number, and Boston shot just 26.0 percent from 3 in Game 2 to lose. The C’s still had Game 2 within two points in the fourth quarter, and only Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown scored in double figures in that game.

I expect an all-around bounce-back showing from Boston, especially since the Sixers are just 6-8 against the spread as home underdogs this season.

The Celtics have become notorious for losing home games in the playoffs, but they’ve responded pretty well in Game 3s, going 6-2 in those matchups over the last four postseasons.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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