Road to the NBA Finals: NBA Playoff Predictions, Picks for Spurs vs. Thunder Western Conference Finals Game 7

Game 7, with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line. Does it get any better than that?

The San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder have battled it out in the Western Conference Finals, and Victor Wembanyama and Co. held things together in Game 6, winning 118-91 to force a winner-take-all matchup on Saturday night.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the defending champion Thunder are favored by 3.5 points at home in Game 7, but that is the closest spread the team has had in a home game all postseason. The Thunder were 6.5-point favorites in Games 1 and 2 and 5.5-point favorites in Game 5, which they won by 13 points.

So, can the defending champs take care of business on their home floor?

History is on the Thunder’s side, as teams that won Game 5 in a best-of-seven series that was tied 2-2 went on to win the series 82% of the time (198-44 series record). However, the Spurs aren’t any regular team, as they won 62 games in the regular season and have a plus-11.0 net rating in the playoffs, which is good for second behind only the New York Knicks.

The winner of Saturday’s game will face the Knicks in the NBA Finals, but who is it going to be?

All postseason long, I’ve challenged myself to bet on every game in this “Road to the NBA Finals” column.

Game 7 is no different, and the rules remain the same:

Bet on every game through the play-in tournament and playoffs
Bet can be a spread, total, moneyline, player prop or game prop
ENJOY POSTSEASON BASKETBALL!

With a trip to the 2026 NBA Finals at stake, here’s why I’m betting on the total in Spurs vs. Thunder on Saturday night.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 212.5 (-110)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why the UNDER may be the best bet in this matchup:

If you’re looking to bet on the game, I think the UNDER is the play in Game 7.

Historically, Game 7s are a little more low-scoring and slower paced, and two of the last three games (Games 4 and 6) fell short of this total. Game 1 would have also fallen short of this number had it not gone to double overtime.

These are two of the best defenses in the NBA, ranking No. 1 (OKC) and No. 3 (San Antonio) in defensive rating during the regular season. In the playoffs, the Spurs are even better, posting a defensive rating just over 104.0.

We’ve seen both sides sell out to stop the superstars – Wembanyama and Gilgeous-Alexander – in this series, and the Thunder’s offense has looked disjointed in two of the last three games.

When set as road underdogs in the 2025-26 season, San Antonio has hit the UNDER in 11 of 18 games.

With Jalen Williams (10 minutes in Game 6) ruled out for Game 7, I’m not sold on the OKC offense dominating the game. It took an amazing shooting performance in Game 5 for the Thunder to score over 120 points, and I think both teams will lean on their defenses in the half court on Saturday.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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