Road to the NBA Finals: NBA Playoff Predictions, Picks Thunder-Lakers, Pistons-Cavs on May 11

The Road to the NBA Finals challenge continues on Monday, as the Oklahoma City Thunder look to become the second team to clinch a spot in the Conference Finals this season.

Jalen Brunson and the New York Knicks completed a sweep of the Philadelphia 76ers on Sunday, and OKC has a 3-0 series lead over the Los Angeles Lakers heading into Monday’s matchup.

OKC is favored by 10.5-points on the road, and I’m eyeing the Thunder as part of today’s two picks in this challenge.

The other Game 4 on Monday is between the Detroit Pistons and Cleveland Cavaliers, as the Cavs look to even the series after winning Game 3 at home. Cleveland is a perfect 5-0 at home in the playoffs and is a small favorite in this matchup.

As I’ve done all playoffs, I’m betting on each game in the “Road to the NBA Finals” challenge. Here’s a quick reminder of the rules before I dive into one player prop – and one side – to bet on Monday, May 11:

Bet on every game through the play-in tournament and playoffs
Bet can be a spread, total, moneyline, player prop or game prop
ENJOY POSTSEASON BASKETBALL!

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Jalen Duren UNDER 23.5 Points and Rebounds (-109)

In today’s best NBA props column for SI Betting, I broke down why bettors should fade Pistons big man Jalen Duren at this number:

Pistons big man Jalen Duren has struggled in the playoffs, averaging 10.4 points and 9.2 rebounds per game, a complete shift from where he was during the regular season.

After putting up 19.5 points and 10.5 rebounds per game in the regular season, Duren was a clear All-NBA candidate for the No. 1 seed in the East. Now, he has just one game all postseason with more than 23.5 points and rebounds (Game 7 against Orlando in the first round).

In this series, Duren has combined for 23, 18 and 15 points and rebounds, pulling down just four boards in the Pistons’ Game 3 loss. His offense has been nonexistent, as he’s taking just 7.9 shots per game and shooting under 50 percent from the field.

I’ll gladly fade Duren at this number on Monday night.

Oklahoma City Thunder -10.5 (-115) vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I’m trusting OKC to wrap up this series in Los Angeles:

The Lakers have put together some valiant first-half performances in back-to-back games – leading at half in each matchup – but they’ve run out of gas on the offensive end in both games, losing by 18 and 23 points.

Los Angeles is now 0-7 against the Thunder in the 2025-26 season (including four regular season matchups), and it has lost six of those seven games by 18 or more points. So, even with this spread moving two points in OKC’s favor in Game 4, I’m still going to lay the points.

The Thunder have a net rating of plus-18.8 this postseason (No. 2 in the NBA), and they’ve shown that they can handle the Lakers’ early runs in games to then walk them down in the second half.

Los Angeles has competed in this series, but without Doncic, the Lakers don’t have the firepower to beat this Thunder team. I’d be surprised if the Thunder messed around and let this series get to a Game 5.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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