SI Betting Mailbag: NFL Week 1 and CFB Week 2 (Super Bowl Picks, FCS Upsets, and Survivor Pool Advice)

We're officially in the full swing of the 2026 college football season, and the first NFL Sunday of the year is here. Keep your calendars clear, because our weekends from now through the Super Bowl are completely booked up.

Throughout the football season, I'll be doing a weekly mailbag to answer YOUR questions about betting on both the NFL and this year's college football season.

You have two ways to submit questions each week:

Send me (@IainMacBets) a DM on X or Instagram
Send me an e-mail at iain@si.com

Each week, we'll choose a few questions to answer in an article.

This week, we're keying in on NFL Week 1 and college football Week 2. Let's dive into the questions.

NFL Week 1 + CFB Week 2 Mailbag Questions

What two teams do you see in the Super Bowl this early in the season?
Gary G.

In my NFL season betting preview article, I gave my official pick to win Super Bowl 61: the Detroit Lions. First of all, their schedule is the easiest in the NFL based on opponent win projections, giving them a clear path to a playoff spot, or ideally, the No. 1 seed in the conference. Secondly, I think they played much better than their record indicated last year. They finished the season third in DVOA and sixth in Net Yards per Play. An unlucky season that resulted in them missing the postseason has led them to be underrated in the betting market ahead of 2026.

In terms of who they'll face in the Super Bowl, I'm going to go with the Jacksonville Jaguars, a team I've been buying into more and more as the offseason progressed. Their defense was one of the most underrated units in the NFL a year ago, and with Trevor Lawrence entering in his second year in Liam Coen's system, I think it's in for a career year in a wide-open AFC.

Happy football season, Iain! I like that you have 3 survivor entries over a couple groups. Curious how'd you do week 1? Would you go 2 on jags and something else? Appreciate your help always.
Rob W.

One of my favorite parts about Week 1 of the NFL season is a completely fresh Survivor Pool slate. It might just be my favorite form of preseason pool, better than both fantasy and pick'em leagues.

I have three entries across two different leagues for this year, and for Week 1, I'm spreading my picks out. I'm going with one safe pick, one medium pick, and one risky pick.

Pick No. 1: Jaguars over Browns. The Jaguars are the second-biggest favorites in the opening week of games. They're at home coming off a 13-4 season, taking on a directionless Browns team that has Deshaun Watson at quarterback. While it is burning a good team early, the Jaguars have a tough out-of-division schedule this season, so if you avoid divisional games in survivor like I do, this might be the best matchup you'll get with them this season.

Pick No. 2: Steelers over Falcons. The pick has become safer since the Falcons announced that Cooper Rush will be their starting quarterback for this game. Atlanta has to play on the road with their third-string quarterback against a Pittsburgh team that will have new life breathed into it under Mike McCarthy. It's one of the best times to take on the Steelers this season.

Pick No. 3: Raiders over Dolphins. If you really want to be risky and use a bad team early and keep the good teams for later in the season, which is a solid strategy if you're in a large pool with thousands of entries, then consider the Raiders over the Dolphins. Miami's roster might just be the worst in the entire NFL, and now they have to hit the road to take on a Raiders team that is now a couple of years into its rebuild. Brock Bowers being out hurts, but they're still listed as 3-point favorites.

p.s. if you want a survivor pool to join, mine still has spots available.

After seeing Tarleton, the Citadel, Idaho State from the FCS pull off Week 1 upsets, do you foresee anymore FCS over FBS upsets in Week 2?
Jovan A.

I'm more confident than ever that we're going to see another FCS over FBS win this week. In fact, there's a game on Saturday night that has the best chance of an FCS over FBS win that we'll see all season. In fact, it wouldn't even be an upset.

The No. 1 FCS team in the nation, Montana State, is set to take on the Nevada Wolf Pack. The Bobcats are set as 3.5-point favorites against Nevada, which is just the fourth time ever that an FCS team has been favored over an FBS team.

If you want a true upset prediction for an FCS over FBS team, keep an eye on Colgate against Central Michigan. The Raiders aren't a top-ranked FCS team, but they've begun their season with impressive wins against Fordham and Holy Cross.

Meanwhile, Central Michigan could be in for a tough year. Not only did they lose 38-7 to New Mexico in Week 1, but they also gained a measly 149 yards on offense in that game. If that's a sign of what's to come, Colgate could take the Chippewas down to the wire.

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