SI Betting Mailbag: NFL Week 3 and CFB Week 4 (Winless Teams, Utah is a Dark Horse and How to Bet on Football)

We're now into Week 3 of the NFL season, and Week 4 of the college football season has begun. I think it's fair to say that we're into the meat of the football season.

From now through the Super Bowl, I'll be doing a weekly mailbag to answer YOUR questions about betting on both college football and the NFL.

You have two ways to submit questions each week:

Send me (@IainMacBets) a DM on X or Instagram
Send me an e-mail at iain@si.com

Each week, we'll choose a few questions to answer in an article.

This week, we're talking NFL Week 3 and college football Week 4. Let's dive into the questions.

NFL Week 3 + CFB Week 4 Mailbag Questions

Between the Texans, Buccaneers, and Chargers, which 0-2 team would you bet on to bounce back and make the playoffs?
Daniel T.

In terms of the betting odds, it's the Texans with by far the best chance to make the playoffs, still favored to make the postseason at -126 compared to the Chargers at +380 and the Buccaneers at +265. In terms of which team I think has the betting value, I have to go with the Bucs at +265.

Tampa Bay has an advantage that neither the Texans nor the Chargers have; they play in the NFC South. As we've seen in previous seasons, there's a chance a team can win the NFC South this year with only eight or nine wins.

Their divisional competition may be better this year than they were ago, but the Bucs are now 0-2 against AFC opponents, meaning the losses are the least impactful for any future tiebreaker. They still have six games against divisional opponents, and if they can win those, these two losses will disappear quickly.

Meanwhile, it's going to be hard for the Chargers to keep pace with the likes of the Chiefs, Broncos, and for that matter, the Raiders, after starting 0-2. The Texans also have some issues with the Jaguars looking like a strong team again this season.

The Bucs are the value play if you're looking to buy low on a team.

Are there any conference winners you like in college football?
Jim S.

There is! My favorite conference winner bet right now is the Utah Utes to capture the Big 12 at +550 at FanDuel. We're still early in the season, but the Utes are third in the nation and first amongst all power conference teams in adjusted EPA per play at +0.93. Their offense has been fantastic, and even more important, Texas Tech has shown some significant holes. There's a reason why the Red Raiders are no longer odds-on favorites to win the Big 12.

In fact, I think Utah's biggest competition is BYU, so I already have their November 7 showdown against the Cougars circled on my calendar. The Utes have plenty of value at +550.

If you're looking for a team with even longer odds, check out Florida at +1400. Their offense has been electric, and if they beat Ole Miss today, their odds are going to shorten significantly.

How do you decide what teams to bet on each week?
Alex M.

I have a similar process for both the NFL and college football. The first thing I do is take a look at some general stats. I use TeamRankings to look at simple yardage stats like yards per play, red zone percentage, and third-down conversion rate. I then use sites like RBSDM and GameOnPaper to look at more advanced metrics like EPA per play and success rate.

The second thing I do is consider the styles of the two teams that are playing against each other. How often do they run the ball compared to passing the ball? What are they good at? What are their tendencies? What are they bad at? Remember, styles make fights, and if one team's strengths line up with their opponent's weaknesses, that could lead to big things.

Finally, and most importantly, I find the best odds for the team that I want to bet on. There are plenty of services out there that compare the available odds at all sportsbooks for your region. If you only bet at one sportsbook and don't bet the best odds that are available to you, you're simply leaving money on the table, and it adds up in a very real way over the long term.

Those are the three simple steps I take: research teams, break down the matchup, and find the best odds. If you do that, you'll find yourself losing a lot less money each weekend.

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