South Carolina vs. UConn Prediction, Odds, Key Player for Women’s NCAA Tournament Final Four

A rematch of the 2025 National Championship Game takes place in this year’s Final Four, as the South Carolina Gamecocks take on the UConn Huskies in a battle between two of the best programs in women’s college basketball.

Geno Auriemma’s Huskies have not lost a game this season, and they enter the Final Four off of an 18-point win in the Elite 8 over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks held off No. 3 TCU and Olivia Miles to advance to yet another Final Four.

UConn is a 7.5-point favorite in this game, and it dominated South Carolina in the national title game in the 2025 season. However, Paige Bueckers is no longer with the Huskies after going No. 1 overall in the 2025 WNBA Draft.

Instead, 2026 Naismith Trophy Winner Sarah Strong leads the Huskies against Joyce Edwards, Raven Johnson, Ta’Niya Latson and the Gamecocks’ deep roster.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for this Final Four showdown.

South Carolina vs. UConn Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

South Carolina +7.5 (-112)
UConn -7.5 (-108)

Moneyline

South Carolina: +250
UConn: -325

Total

135.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

South Carolina vs. UConn How to Watch

Date: Friday, April 3
Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
South Carolina record: 35-3
UConn record: 38-0

South Carolina vs. UConn Key Player to Watch

Sarah Strong, Forward, UConn

The 2026 Naismith Trophy winner, Strong is the best player in the country, and she’s put together a strong tournament for the Huskies, scoring at least 18 points in every game.

Overall, Strong is averaging 18.6 points, 7.6 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 3.4 steals and 1.6 blocks per game to lead UConn.

South Carolina is a very athletic team, and it may opt to put Joyce Edwards – another star sophomore – on Strong on Friday night. Still, the Huskies have been able to rely on Strong to score no matter the matchup, as she’s shooting 59.4 percent from the field and 40.4 percent from 3-point range.

South Carolina vs. UConn Prediction and Pick

Geno Auriemma vs. Dawn Staley is going to be an absolute chess match, and I think there’s a real argument for the Gamecocks to cover in this game.

UConn was favored by 25 or more points in back-to-back games against UNC and Notre Dame, but it failed to cover against either team. Now, it takes on a South Carolina team that is No. 3 in the country in both adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency.

On top of that, South Carolina ranks 13th in the country in offensive rebound rate, and it ranks inside the top 10 in 2-point and 3-point percentage. The Huskies are No. 1 and 2 in those two categories, but they haven’t exactly dominated offensively in the NCAA Tournament, shooting 40 percent from the field against UNC and 44.4 percent from the field against Notre Dame.

UConn is undefeated and the odds-on favorite to win the national title, but I’m not sold on it blowing out South Carolina like it did in last year’s title game.

The Huskies don’t have Paige Bueckers to fall back on – though Strong is a pretty great option – and they haven’t faced nearly as many high-level teams this season. In fact, UConn only faced two teams that were seeded as a No. 2 or higher in the NCAA Tournament, beating Iowa (which lost in the second round) by 26 and Michigan (which lost in the Elite 8) by three.

South Carolina has just three losses, and two were to another No. 1 seed in Texas.

I think the Gamecocks can keep this one within two possessions on Friday.

Pick: South Carolina +7.5 (-112 at FanDuel)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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