South Florida vs. UTSA Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 6

One of the first matchups in college football this week takes place on Thursday, Oct. 8, as the 4-1 South Florida Bulls face the 4-1 UTSA Roadrunners.

UTSA’s lone loss came against the No. 1-ranked Texas Longhorns, and it has back-to-back wins against Colorado State and Rice coming into this home matchup.

The Roadrunners are favored by seven points against the Bulls, who are 4-1 after a loss to Temple in their last game. The Bulls rank inside the top-50 in success rate on both offense and defense, but the Roadrunners may be one of the tougher opponents they’ve had so far in 2026.

Last season, South Florida dominated this matchup, winning by 32 points, but it has a new quarterback in Michael Van Buren Jr. Meanwhile, Owen McCown remains under center for the Roadrunners, who are looking to win the AAC in the 2026 campaign.

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for this early-week showdown in the AAC.

South Florida vs. UTSA Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

South Florida +7 (-110)
UTSA -7 (-110)

Moneyline

South Florida: +225
UTSA: -278

Total

51.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

South Florida vs. UTSA How to Watch

Date: Thursday, Oct. 8
Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Alamodome
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
South Florida record: 4-1
UTSA record: 4-1

South Florida vs. UTSA Key Player to Watch

Owen McCown, Quarterback, UTSA

The son of NFL quarterback Josh McCown, Owen McCown is off to a solid start in the 2026 season.

He’s thrown for 1,010 yards while completing 68.2 percent of his passes in five games. McCown has seven scores and just two interceptions this season, adding 22 carries for 37 yards on the ground.

UTSA is only 105th in the country in success rate on pass plays, and it has a tough matchup against a South Florida defense that is 45th in EPA/Pass and 30th in defensive success rate through five weeks.

Can McCown get the Roadrunners to 5-1?

South Florida vs. UTSA Prediction and Pick

Both of these teams are off to 4-1 starts, but the Bulls are coming off a 17-13 loss against Temple in their last game.

UTSA’s only loss was against the No. 1 Texas Longhorns, so they certainly have a strong resume at this point in 2026.

Still, South Florida outranks UTSA in net adjusted EPA/Play and is a top-30 team in defensive success rate in 2026.

The Roadrunners’ numbers are certainly hurt by a 30-6 loss to the Longhorns, but this team is just 105th in passing success rate and is outside the top-90 in the country in adjusted EPA/Play on offense.

There is a ton of turnover year-to-year in college football, but South Florida crushed UTSA 55-23 last season. Now, with former LSU quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr. at the controls, South Florida is 44th in the country in success rate in 2026.

The Bulls haven’t played a lot of tough competition, but I think they can keep this game within seven points against a conference opponent. UTSA is 3-1-1 against the spread in 2026, but it has one-possession wins over Texas State and Rice (last week). So, the Roadrunners aren’t running away with every game against non-Power 4 squads.

I’ll take the points in this early week showdown.

Pick: South Florida +7 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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