Spain vs. Argentina Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bet for World Cup Final

Brazil won back-to-back World Cups in 1958 and 1962, and the team has done it since. Argentina has a chance to break that streak this Sunday when they take on Spain in the 2026 World Cup Final.

Spain entered the tournament as the World Cup favorites, and now, five weeks later, they have a chance to win it all. This match features the past against the future as Lionel Messi seeks his second World Cup win, having to now take on Lamine Yamal, the face of the future of the sport.

With everything on the line, let's dive into the odds and my best bets for Sunday's World Cup finale.

Spain vs. Argentina Odds and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

To Win the World Cup

Spain -152 (60.32% implied probability)
Argentina +130

3-Way Moneyline

Spain +125
Argentina +270
Draw +195

Total (90 Minutes)

OVER 2.5 (+132)
UNDER 2.5 (-162)

Spain vs. Argentina How to Watch

Date: Sunday, July 19
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
Venue: New York/New Jersey Stadium
How to Watch (TV): Fox/Tele/Fox One
Spain record: 5-1-0
Argentina record: 6-0-0

Spain vs. Argentina History and Tournament Results

Spain and Argentina have faced each other 10 times before. Spain is 6-2-6 in those 10 matches. The most recent meeting was a 2018 international friendly, which ended in a 6-1 win for Spain. They faced each other once in the World Cup before. It was a 1966 group stage match that Argentina won 2-1.

Spain

Spain played to a 0-0 draw against Cape Verde in its first match of the tournament, a result that becomes even more surprising as the tournament progresses. Since then, they've defeated Saudi Arabia, Uruguay, Austria, Portugal, Belgium, and France. They have conceded just one goal in the entire tournament.

Argentina

Argentina has won all seven of its matches in this tournament. Their wins have come against Algeria, Austria, and Jordan in the group stage, and then Cape Verde, Egypt, Switzerland, and England in the knockout stage.

Spain vs. Argentina Best Prop Bet

Lamine Yamal Anytime Goal (+230)

In the final edition of my Best World Cup Goal Scorer Bets, I made the case for betting on Yamal to score at +230:

Mikel Oyarzabal leads Spain in expected goals this tournament with 4.87, but it's Lamine Yamal that has more shots with 23. So, instead of betting on Oyarzabal at +165, I'm going to take a chance on Yamal at +230. This feels like a monumental match for Yamal, who represents the next generation of soccer at just 19 years old.

It's worth noting that Argentina hasn't been the most elite defensive team in this tournament, sporting an expected goals against of 0.95 per 90 minutes of play. That should leave players like Yamal to get a handful of offensive opportunities.

Spain vs. Argentina Prediction and Pick

Spain was the pre-tournament favorite, and there's no reason to think they won't win on Sunday. I broke down why in today's edition of my Best World Cup Bets:

Let's not get it twisted. Spain entered the World Cup as the tournament favorites, and since a first-match hiccup against Cape Verde, they've been the best team in this competition. Their advanced metrics support that fact as well, sporting an expected goal differential of +1.30 per 90 minutes of play. That's well above Argentina, which comes in at +0.91.

Argentina has struggled against inferior opponents throughout the knockout stage, but they've managed to come out on top thanks to late-game heroics. Now, for the first time, they face a superior team, and we could see Spain win this match comfortably.

Pick: Spain to Lift the Trophy -152 via FanDuel

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