Sportsbook Insiders: Examining Teams Rising in the Super Bowl Odds; Which Contenders Have Been Bet the Least

A third of the 2026 NFL season is in the books, and there has been a ton of movement in the odds to win the Super Bowl.

Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers are the new favorite after a 6-0 start, and only three teams – San Francisco, Kansas City and Buffalo – are inside 10/1 to win it all. After that, there is a clear group of eight teams at 20/1 or better to win it all, giving bettors plenty of options to consider when placing their futures bets.

This week, Sports Illustrated spoke to several oddsmakers about the Super Bowl market to figure out which team has done the most to improve their Super Bowl positon from where they were priced in the preseason.

Obviously, the 49ers were a popular choice.

“That team for us is the Niners, without a doubt,” Ty Gour, Sports Trader at Fanatics Sportsbook, told Sports Illustrated. “We viewed their path as being very difficult having to come out of the NFC West, playing the Rams and the Seahawks twice a year. That has not proven to be a problem for them so far, winning both those games. And their offense just looks incredible, and they're not even really at full capacity right now. Losing Mike Evans, and then nursing CMC (Christian McCaffrey), so there's a lot of room to grow for that roster even still.

“That's definitely a team that's taken the biggest jump.”

While there’s no doubt that San Francisco’s offense (top three in the league in EPA/Play and yards per play) has propelled this team into a great position to earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC, injuries are mounting with Mike Evans (Achilles) going down in Week 6. He should return this season, but the 49ers are running out of healthy bodies on offense as Purdy has an MVP-caliber season.

“The 49ers are obviously the main team that stands out as they have been dominating teams so far with a 6-0 start and their odds reflect that as well,” Christian Cipollini, Senior Trading Manager at BetMGM, told Sports Illustrated. “The [Jacksonville] Jaguars and [Chicago] Bears are probably the next two. Two teams with good offensive minded coaches that you could see making a run in January if everything breaks right.”

Jacksonville was a team nearly every oddsmaker mentioned, and the Jags are off to a 4-2 start and remain the favorite to win the AFC South. However, the team’s loss to Houston in Week 6 may have limited just how far they could move up in this market.

“Jacksonville took a step back this week with the loss vs. Houston, but during their win streak and pre-season, they continue to not catch the bettors' eyes when it comes to the Super Bowl market,” Joey Feazel, Head of Football at Caesars Sportsbook, told Sports Illustrated.

The Bears are another team that has gained some ground in the odds, especially with Caleb Williams' return in Week 6. Chicago is the defending NFC North champion and is off to a 4-2 start despite Williams missing three games. After being priced around +3000 in the preseason, the Bears have cut that number in half at some books.

“That would be the Jaguars and the Bears,” Johnny Avello, Director of Race and Sports Operations for DraftKings Sportsbook, told Sports Illustrated. “In preseason, both of those teams were considered more of a possibility opposed to a contender. Both are now in the top 10 as far as the pricing to win it all – Jags 13/1, Bears 15/1.”

Which Contenders Are Receiving the Least Amount of Super Bowl Bets?

Sports Illustrated also asked several oddsmakers to name the teams in the contending group in the Super Bowl odds that are receiving the least amount of action this season.

Essentially, the teams that the betting public isn’t sold on through six weeks. The Minnesota Vikings, Jaguars and shockingly the 49ers all came up quite a bit for each book.

“That's probably Jags and Minnesota, two teams that have been playing well and with low ticket counts,” Avello said. “If I wanted to expand on that, I could tell you that the [Baltimore] Ravens, the [Seattle] Seahawks, [Philadelphia] Eagles, [Detroit Lions] and [Pittsburgh] Steelers – the bettors, are all apprehensive about those teams.”

There are several teams with injuries (Baltimore and Philly between two of the most obvious) that have seen their ceiling diminish in the 2026 season. Meanwhile, the undefeated Vikings are facing a critical stretch that could change them from a fringe contender to a real one if they’re able to survive.

“We also did highly rate the Vikings with their 5-0 start,” Gour said. “The defense has been incredible, but the caveat with them is their schedule is about to get a lot harder coming out of the bye. Lions, Bills, Packers, Niners are their next four, and all four of those offenses are going to be a better test than the Vikings have faced yet. So, we'll see how legitimate a contender they really are following that stretch, but as of now, they've made a big leap as well.”

Still, Gour shared that San Francisco and Jacksonville are the two contenders being bet the least, pointing to Jacksonville’s lack of primetime games as a potential reason for the lack of wagers from the public.

“The first being the Niners, maybe just because there wasn't much preseason hype around the team,” Gour said. “They are our seventh-most bet despite being the current Super Bowl favorite, so that's definitely an interesting trend. But then another one I found really interesting was the Jags. They're 17th-most bet despite being 14-to-1 and right in the contender discussion. And I imagine a lot of that has to do with the Jags seldom play primetime – if they do, it's usually Thursday night – and not many people outside of that market are watching the Jags, at least until playoff time.”

With Jacksonville and Buffalo on the bye in Week 7, there’s a chance these odds could move further. Kansas City plays the Seattle Seahawks in primetime this week – a big measuring-stick game for both teams – while Baltimore, Cincinnati, Green Bay and Detroit have major divisional matchups on Sunday.

It’s interesting to see which teams are gaining ground through the first third of the season, but there’s no guarantee that any of them will remain in this spot by the time the playoffs roll around.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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