Sportsbook Insiders: Explaining the Latest NFL Draft Odds Movement; Arch Manning's Fall From No. 1

Entering the 2026 college football season, Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning was the favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. In fact, Manning has been the favorite in that market entering the season in back-to-back years yet he’s failed to live up to expectations.

With the former No. 1 Longhorns losing back-to-back games and Manning struggling with turnovers in a Texas offense that is 100th in the country in EPA/Play, Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith has jumped into the top spot in the latest draft odds.

NFL Draft No. 1 Overall Pick Odds

Odds via the best NFL betting sites

Jeremiah Smith: +210
Drew Mestemaker: +330
CJ Carr: +330
Darian Mensah: +1000
Trinidad Chambliss: +1000
Arch Manning: +1100
Dante Moore: +2000
Austin Simmons: +2200

Sports Illustrated spoke to several oddsmakers about the NFL Draft market, and their thoughts on Manning’s future since he still has another year of collegiate eligibility.

“Pretty unique that Arch started as the favorite for No. 1 overall in back to back years, and he’s falling down the board here again,” Christian Cipollini, Senior Trading Manager at BetMGM, told Sports Illustrated. “Jeremiah Smith has been pushing his way up that market for a few weeks now with his play. This is one of those things where the team who’s picking No. 1 is going to be a major factor. If the season ended today it would be the [Los Angeles] Chargers, and I highly doubt they’d take a QB, and they’d go with Smith. But if the [Miami] Dolphins end up with No. 1 you'd expect them to go QB.”

Right now, Oklahoma State quarterback Drew Mestemaker has the best odds of any signal-caller to go No. 1 with Notre Dame’s CJ Carr, Miami’s Darian Mensah and Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss trailing him.

But, how do books actually set these odds, especially since the NFL Draft order won’t be decided until the end of the regular season?

“The draft market's really interesting this time of year,” Ty Gour, Sports Trader at Fanatics Sportsbook, told Sports Illustrated. “It essentially ends up being a bit of a copy of the Heisman market.

“So, as the Heisman market moves from September until about December, so will the draft market. They do tend to fall in line.”

Fanatics also has Jeremiah Smith favored to go No. 1 even though Keyshawn Johnson (1996) was the last receiver to go in the top spot. It's only happened three times in NFL history.

“Right now, we have Jeremiah Smith as our favorite for number one,” Gour said. “I don't remember the last time a wide receiver's been taken first overall. And then a lot of this too depends on who actually ends up getting that pick. If it's the [Tennessee] Titans, that makes a ton of sense for them to draft him, but if it's the Chargers, for example, I don't necessarily know that they go get a receiver with that pick.”

Right now, it appears that bettors are eyeing Mestemaker as the top quarterback in this class. The Oklahoma State star is a dual-threat quarterback and has 16 passing touchdowns already for the Cowboys.

“The one guy I think that the bettors think that the NFL would be interested in is Drew Mestemaker,” Johnny Avello, Director of Race and Sports Operations for DraftKings Sportsbook, told Sports Illustrated. “I mean, he's having a great year – 16 TDs – and he's one of those kinds of guys that would probably fit a lot of NFL teams who need quarterbacks, teams like Tennessee, Miami, [the New York] Jets, Chargers, all those teams need a quarterback. So, he's the guy that's stock has risen the most over the past two or three weeks.”

It’s interesting to see that some books view the Chargers – who have Justin Herbert – as a team in the market for a quarterback while others don’t. That could lead to a discrepancy in the odds at the end of the season once the team with the No. 1 pick is decided. Right now, the 0-6 Chargers are the frontrunner for the top pick with the winless Dolphins (0-5) right behind them.

When it comes to Manning, oddsmakers seem to think he could opt to play another year in college before coming out.

“I'm looking at Arch now, he's 10-1, which isn't a real high price, but there's always a chance that he could turn this around,” Avello said. “He's considering playing another year now. If the draft was tomorrow, I think the best case scenario for him would be the second round. So, there's just been no consistency, and so he wouldn't be going where he wants to go in that draft.”

Still, there is some risk involved in doing that, especially after Oregon star Dante Moore suffered a scary injury this season after opting to stay out of the 2026 NFL Draft. Manning’s fall is pretty notable since there are several quarterbacks ahead of him in the latest odds.

“Going back to Arch Manning, he opened at +175, he's fallen down to 10-to-1, and we'll be keeping a very close eye not only on his rest of season, but as the season goes on, if he decides to go back to college or not,” Gour said. “Him being a junior, he still has the opportunity to do so. And we're seeing a lot of quarterbacks doing that more and more just to boost their draft stock. I mean, it's done wonders for Trinidad Chambliss, but then there's also the caveat of what happened with Dante Moore and how that could have a long-term effect in his career as well.”

There is still a ton of time for Manning to change the sentiment around him before draft season, but if this season doesn’t work out, he may need to consider transferring if he wants to get the most out of his ability before the NFL. So far, the fit in Texas has been a little clunky, and the Longhorns are in a serious danger of missing the College Football Playoff.

It’s possible a change of scenery could eventually boost the former No. 1 recruit’s draft stock.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Add us as a preferred source on Google