Sportsbook Insiders: How Hard Are the Cowboys to Model? Insights on Dallas' Week 6 Matchup vs. Packers

The Dallas Cowboys have been one of the most fascinating teams in the NFL this season. They enter Week 6 with a 2-3 record, coming off a baffling upset loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They'll try to get back on track when they face the Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football.

If you've watched any game involving the Cowboys, or if you've tried to figure out which side to bet on in their games each week, you know that they have one of the best offenses in football, but arguably the worst defense.

If you don't believe me, let's take a look at where they rank in some key offensive and defensive metrics.

Cowboys Offensive Stats

Points per game: 7th (27.6)
Yards per play: 10th (5.8)
EPA per play: 5th
Success rate: 4th

Cowboys Defensive Stats

Opponent points per game: 25th (27.2)
Opponent yards per play: 32nd (6.4)
Opponent EPA per play: 32nd
Opponent success rate: 32nd

The Cowboys rank top 10 in almost every single offensive metric, and even top five in a few areas, but their defense ranks last in several, and if they're not dead last in one, they're at least in the bottom five.

That makes them a difficult team to handicap. How do you rate a team that can score almost every time they touch the ball, but they'll allow the other team to do the same any time they're on defense?

To get to the bottom of that, I spoke to Ty Gour, a Sports Trader at Fanatics Sportsbook:

"Most of their games end up in shootout game scripts, which, from a modeling perspective, can be difficult at times just because of the unpredictability in a shootout environment. If both teams are scoring on every drive, it can make a mediocre offense look amazing, and it can make a mediocre defense look abysmal. It's just something to keep in mind in these games."

He went on to describe how it changes modeling player props as well.

"That's an area that we tend to have to work a little extra hard on: player props in these kinds of games, especially big-time receivers like CeeDee Lamb or Christian Watson. They're going to have inflated props in these types of games compared to other weeks".

So how do we bettors handle any game involving the Cowboys? In this week's edition of the Road to 272 Bets, I broke down my simple strategy:

If they're favored, bet against them; if they're getting points, take them, if it's close to a pick'em bet the OVER. Their defense is too bad to lay points on them, but their offense is too good to ever underestimate them. That's why, in this week's coin-flip game against the Packers, I'm going to bet the OVER.

The Cowboys are set as 1.5-point underdogs to Green Bay on Sunday night.

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