Road to 272 Bets: NFL Week 6 Picks for Every Game

The good news is we had a profitable Week 5 of the Road to 272 Bets; the bad news is the profit was a measly 0.14 units.

Regardless, in gambling, if you aren't losing, you're winning, so I'll take my pennies of profit and advance to Week 16, where we have just 14 games to watch and bet on, with the Miami Dolphins, Cincinnati Bengals, Minnesota Vikings, and Detroit Lions all on their BYE weeks.

If you want to listen to the audio version of this week's picks, including some more in-depth analysis, check out the latest episode of Bacon Bets wherever you get your podcasts. You can also get a list of all my picks and where I bet them on Juice Reel. Finally, you can check it out to find the six rules I follow for this challenge.

Road to 272 Bets Record

Week 5: 8-7 (+0.14 units)
Season-to-date: 35-42-1 (-8.62 units)

NFL Week 6 Best Bets for Every Game

Seahawks vs. Broncos Prediction

This week's Thursday Night Football game features two of the best defenses in the NFL. The Seahawks rank second in both opponent EPA per play and opponent success rate, while the Broncos rank 10th and sixth in those two metrics. Denver's defensive numbers are that good while having played some of the best offenses in the league to begin the season, including the Chiefs, Jaguars, Rams, and 49ers, so expect them to improve their standing in their defensive analytics soon.

Meanwhile, I have some question marks about both offenses. They rank 24th and 26th in EPA per play, and Seattle's offense is in a tough spot, having to play at altitude in Denver on a short week.

This total is a touch too high, I'll bet the UNDER.

Pick: UNDER 41.5 (-110) via PointsBet

Texans vs. Jaguars Prediction

There are some signs pointing to the possibility of the momentum switching for these two teams. The Texans got off to a terrible start to the season, while the Jaguars got off to a red-hot start, but don't be surprised if things begin to trend in opposite directions starting this weekend.

The Jaguars rank 10th in offensive luck and second in defensive luck according to RBSDM.com, while the Texans rank outside the top 10 in that metric on both sides of the ball. Defensively, the Texans outrank the Jaguars in success rate, but Jacksonville comes out on top when it comes to opponent EPA. That tells us that the Jaguars haven't been as good on a down-to-down basis, but they've allowed fewer explosive plays. I trust success rate a lot more when it comes to consistent, long-term results, so I'm giving a nod to Houston in that area.

It can't be overstated how different the Texans' offense is with Nico Collins healthy. They scored 31, 30, and 26 points in the three games he played in, but six and 17 points in their two games without him. He's going to make a huge difference with him healthy against this Jaguars defense.

I'll take the field goal with Houston.

Pick: Texans +3 (-120) via DraftKings

Jets vs. Patriots Prediction

The Jets may not be as bad as I thought they'd be this season. They aren't good, but they're ranked around the middle of the pack in the NFL across many metrics, including 20th in EPA per play, 11th in opponent EPA per play, and 14th in net yards per play (+0.2).

Geno Smith has also been interesting this season. He hasn't been throwing the ball all over the field and racking up yards, but he's been accurate, ranking 10th in completion percentage over expected, and he has yet to throw an interception. Efficient play from your quarterback goes a long way in covering spreads as an underdog.

The Patriots are coming off an impressive win against the Raiders last week, but let's not pretend that all of their early-season problems have been solved. I'm not sure I'm ready to back them to cover a 7.5-point spread against a division rival this week.

Pick: Jets +7.5 (-115) via FanDuel

Bears vs. Falcons Prediction

We have a lot of early-week questions at quarterback for both teams. Caleb Williams has a chance to return for the Bears after a Week 2 injury, and Michael Penix Jr. may be out with a rib injury for the Falcons, forcing Atlanta to turn to Tua Tagovailoa. I believe the Bears -3 line points to both Williams and Penix Jr. playing, but I'm not so sure. As a Falcons fan myself, his post-game quotes after the Monday Night Football loss weren't promising, and he's proven to be a player who isn't going to take the field unless he's feeling 100%.

If Tagovailoa gets the start on Sunday, this is going to be a disastrous game for Atlanta. We have seen enough from him in both the preseason and at the end of the Week 5 game against the Ravens to know that he's the worst version of himself we've ever seen, and that's saying something.

The injuries are also starting to pile up on the Atlanta defense, so if Williams is back for the Bears, I expect them to be able to put up points in bunches.

I'll lay the field goal on Chicago.

Pick: Bears -3 (-120) via Caesars

Saints vs. Giants Prediction

The Giants continue to find ways to win games they don't deserve to win, so I'm going to continue to fade them in the coming weeks. The Giants are 20th in success rate and 26th in opponent success rate through the first five weeks.

Let's also consider the level of competition each team has had to face. The Saints have faced the Lions, Ravens, Raiders, Falcons, and Vikings, whereas the Giants have had to play the Cowboys, Rams, Titans, Cardinals, and Commanders. Their recent three-game stretch has led people to believe they're a better team than they are.

I'll back the Saints as slight one-point favorites.

Pick: Saints -1 (-107) via BetRivers

Ravens vs. Browns Prediction

There's a chance that Lamar Jackson will return for the Ravens this week, and if he does, we're going to have a great number on Baltimore at -4.5. If he doesn't return, I'm not too concerned, as Tyler Huntley proved on Monday night that he's more than a capable backup.

Not enough people have realized how good the Ravens have played this season, ranking second in offensive success rate and eighth in opponent success rate. They are one of just four teams that rank in the top 10 in both metrics, alongside the 49ers, Rams, and Bears.

I feel good backing them at -4.5 to win and cover against a Browns team.

Pick: Ravens -4.5 (-107) via BetRivers

Steelers vs. Buccaneers Prediction

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' defense may be the most underrated unit in the NFL. They rank sixth in opponent EPA per play and seventh in opponent rush success rate, which is hugely important when it comes to slowing down the Pittsburgh Steelers' offense.

At the same time, let's also not think the Buccaneers' offense found its stride by scoring against the Cowboys last Thursday night, as Dallas has a defense that a JV team could move the ball against. Even if Baker Mayfield returns to the lineup, his first few starts of the season gave me little confidence in his game. He's dead last amongst starting quarterbacks in adjusted EPA per play this season.

Several signs are pointing to this game being a low-scoring affair, so I'm going to bet the UNDER.

Pick: UNDER 40.5 (-110) via BetMGM

Panthers vs. Eagles Prediction

There are very few teams I think the Eagles should be favored against, and the Panthers coming off a BYE week isn't one of them. Not only have the offensive injuries racked up in a major way for Philadelphia, but its numbers continue to be amongst the worst in the NFL.

The Eagles are 29th in EPA per play and 24th in opponent EPA per play, putting them in the bottom handful of teams in the entire NFL. They're also dead last in success rate and 22nd in opponent success rate. They've somehow managed to play in close games all season, but unless they fix things in a hurry, they're going to start racking up some ugly losses.

Meanwhile, the Panthers' offense is a top-10 unit. They still have some issues on defense, but their offense alone makes me think they should be favored in this NFC matchup. I'll back the Panthers as underdogs on the moneyline.

Pick: Panthers +104 via FanDuel

Titans vs. Colts Prediction

It's time for the Titans to get their first win of the season.

You might be surprised to find out how many metrics these two teams rank similarly in, even some that the Titans outrank the Colts in, like net yards per play, which has the Titans at -0.7 and the Colts second-last in the NFL at -1.6.

Another interesting metric for this game is that the Titans have the second-highest run frequency in neutral game states, meaning on early downs in the middle of the game when they still have a more than 20% win probability, Tennessee loves to run the football. That could be an area they exploit in this game, as the Colts rank dead last in the NFL in opponent rush EPA and 30th in opponent run success rate.

Meanwhile, the Titans rank 16th and 11th in those two run defense categories, which will go a long way in slowing down Jonathan Taylor, which is the key to beating this Colts team.

I'll take Tennessee as my upset pick of the week.

Pick: Titans +270 via BetMGM

Cardinals vs. Rams Prediction

The Rams have a glaring issue that cost them on Monday Night Football, and it's something that leads me to be cautious about betting on them to cover big spreads: their special teams. It's the worst special teams in the league and has been for the past couple of years. If they make another blunder in Week 6, it's going to tee the Cardinals up to at least cover this big point spread.

The Cardinals' defense is one of the worst in the NFL, but they have enough weapons on offense that they should be able to be at least somewhat effective in this game against a Rams team on a short week. I'll take the points with Arizona.

Pick: Cardinals +13.5 (-115) via DraftKings

Bills vs. Raiders Prediction

I think I was right about the Raiders when I picked the Patriots last week. This is a team that got off to a hot start, but not one we should view as legitimate contenders. Their defense is a decent unit, but they still are one of the worst rushing offenses in the league, and since they can't run the ball, they have to rely on Kirk Cousins' arm, which is going to work far less often than it did the first four weeks of the season.

The Raiders' offense won't be able to keep pace with Josh Allen and the Bills' offense. I'm happy to lay the points with the spread set below the magic number of seven.

Pick: Bills -6 (-110) via DraftKings

Chargers vs. Chiefs Prediction

Don't look now, but the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs once again have one of the best offenses in football. They lead the league in yards per play, averaging 6.5 yards per snap, and they also rank fourth in EPA per play and fifth in offensive success rate. Led by Offensive Player of the Year favorite Kenneth Walker, they're a dangerous offense to face, and any game they're involved in shouldn't have a total in the low 40s.

Unfortunately, the Chargers' offense is bad, but I continue to believe that Mike McDaniel's system is going to eventually click, and they're going to have some strong offensive outputs sooner rather than later. Now that they face an average Chiefs defense facing an 0-6 record to start the season, now could be the time that their offense comes out firing.

Give me the OVER in this AFC West battle.

Pick: OVER 41.5 (-110) via TheScore Bet

Cowboys vs. Packers Prediction

My strategy for the Cowboys this season is fairly straightforward. If they're favored, bet against them; if they're getting points, take them, if it's close to a pick'em bet the OVER. Their defense is too bad to lay points on them, but their offense is too good to ever underestimate them. That's why, in this week's coin-flip game against the Packers, I'm going to bet the OVER, especially considering the Packers have a similar issue.

The two defenses in this game rank 24th and 32nd in opponent success rate, with the Cowboys also ranking 32nd in opponent EPA per play.

Let's sit back and root for points on Sunday Night Football.

Pick: OVER 52.5 (-105) via FanDuel

Commanders vs. 49ers Prediction

The only argument you can make to bet on the Commanders in this game, and it's not necessarily one that I'd disagree with, is that so many things have gone right for the 49ers through the first five weeks that they're bound to have a game where things go wrong. If that happens, and if Jayden Daniels can drag the Commanders' offense down the field enough, maybe Washington can cover this spread.

With that being said, that's not enough for me to take the Commanders here, and considering I expect the line to shift even more towards San Francisco this week, I'll take them at -7.5 while I still can.

There's a strong argument to be made that the 49ers are the best team in the NFL. They're second in net yards per play (+1.7), second in EPA per play, first in success rate, fourth in opponent EPA per play, and eighth in opponent success rate.

They're well-balanced on both sides of the ball, and now they get to host a bad Commanders team in a prime time slot. There's a chance this game gets ugly.

Pick: 49ers -7.5 (-109) via Caesars

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