Sportsbook Insiders: Insights on AFC North Race, Rams vs. Seahawks Playoff Odds, Teams Receiving Boost After a Bye

Week 9 is the official halfway point of the regular season in the NFL, and there are a ton of teams fighting for playoff position.

The AFC North race has opened up even more with Lamar Jackson (thumb) set to miss several weeks – if not the rest of the season – and two preseason contenders to win the Super Bowl are both teetering on the playoff line in the NFC West.

Each week, Sports Illustrated speaks with multiple oddsmakers to get insights on the upcoming week’s games, the futures market and much more.

Here’s our notebook at the halfway point of the regular season on what to watch for in the NFL.

Why the Bengals Have the Inside Track to Win the AFC North

Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals are odds-on favorites to win the AFC North even though the Pittsburgh Steelers are in first place in the division at 6-2 heading into their bye week. In fact, the Bengals are heavily favored over both the Steelers and the 5-3 Cleveland Browns since these odds moved with Jackson’s injury.

AFC North Odds

Cincinnati Bengals: -160
Pittsburgh Steelers: +220
Cleveland Browns: +950
Baltimore Ravens: +1600

Cincy has one of the best offenses in the league, and the team’s schedule is a major reason why the odds have moved in this way ahead of Week 9.

“We do believe the Bengals have the strongest path to win the division,” Ty Gour, Sports Trader at Fanatics Sportsbook, told Sports Illustrated. “If you look at their schedule the rest of the way, it is quite soft. The [Kansas City] Chiefs game in Week 14 is the only game we project that they will not open as the favorite, as things currently stand. They have two games against the Browns, an [Indianapolis] Colts game, [Washington] Commanders game and Ravens game, which is a lot less daunting than it once was. So, all of those games look to be pretty bankable.

Whereas the Steelers really have a much rougher path. They've still got to play the [Denver] Broncos and the Jacksonville Jaguars. Their only real bankable wins are the [Tennessee] Titans, and then they get two Ravens games – we will see if Jacoby [Brissett] has worked in the playbook by that point, because both those games are pretty late in the season. I believe Week 16 and 18 are when they play each other. And the Steelers also have to travel to Cincinnati in Week 10, so they would open as an underdog in that game. And if the Bengals win that game, they'll have the inside track the rest of the way here.”

Johnny Avello, Director of Race and Sports Operations for DraftKings Sportsbook told Sports Illustrated that they rate the Bengals by about three to four points higher than the Steelers at this point in the season.

Cincy is favored in Madrid in Week 9 against the Atlanta Falcons, but a win wouldn’t vault it into first place since Pittsburgh won the head-to-head meeting between these teams earlier this season.

Rams vs. Seahawks Playoff Chances: Who is Rated Higher?

Coming into the 2026 season, the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks were two of the top-five teams in the odds to win the Super Bowl. Now, they’re both 4-4 through eight weeks and facing an uphill battle to make the postseason.

Seattle is in a really tough spot with Sam Darnold (quad) set to miss Week 9 against Arizona, paving the way for Drew Lock to start.

Right now, both teams are set as a pick’em to make the postseason.

Rams to make the playoffs: -115
Seahawks to make the playoffs: -110

“Now, you talk about who's ahead in the ratings of those two: the Rams pulled ahead of them with the Seahawks' loss on Monday night,” Avello said. “Prior to that, the Seahawks were one of the top two. So these ratings between these teams continue to adjust, and they're changing.”

As things currently stand in the NFC, it looks like the NFC East and NFC South will only have their division winner get into the playoffs. That leaves five postseason slots for the NFC West and NFC North, which currently have seven teams at .500 or better this season. That puts a lot of pressure on the Rams and Seahawks to finish the season strong after 4-4 starts.

“It is also worth noting these teams also play each other twice down the stretch run as well, so there is a chance that they could cannibalize each other in the playoff race,” Gour said. “Just with how good the NFC North is right now, there is a very real mathematical chance that the NFC North sends four playoff teams. So it doesn't leave much margin for error for either the Rams or the Seahawks, and if they end up splitting that season series, that could make that playoff push even more difficult.”

Which Teams See the Biggest Boost After a Bye?

One interesting betting nugget this week is how oddsmakers price certain teams after a bye.

There are coaches – like Andy Reid and John Harbaugh – that receive a pretty big boost after bye week while others may not get the same love in the market.

Johnny Avello, DraftKings: “We give every team about a half-a-point boost off a bye. The Chiefs are worth a full point off a bye, and that's because Andy Reid is just outstanding – 23–5 after the off-week. Now, there's one other factor to mention that we certainly have looked at: Although he's with a new team, John Harbaugh really has a formidable record – 15–3 off the bye. So we'll give the Giants a little extra bump this week at Philly.”

Ty Gour, Fanatics: “Yeah, they'll get a slight boost. And to be truthful, teams who play in a Thursday-nighter also get a similar boost just having a longer week to prepare following, of course. And this more so applies to strong teams with good coaching, like the Bills, Chiefs – famously Andy Reid is almost unbeatable in bye weeks – Ravens, Seahawks, Broncos all fall under that as well. However, there are definitely teams where this doesn't apply. The 49ers are famously quite poor coming off byes, and there are some usual suspects there as well, like the Raiders and the Bengals also historically do not play well following a bye. So it's definitely not a blanket effect, and it really depends on the situation: who they're playing, home game, away game – all of that still applies.”

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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