Sportsbook Insiders: Insights on Packers vs. Vikings, Most Bet Teams, Week 1 Odds Movement

Week 1 is finally here!

The NFL gave us a small sample of action with a Super Bowl rematch on Wednesday and an NFC West showdown (in Australia) on Thursday, but a full 13-game Sunday slate is ahead to truly bring back the football season.

There are a ton of intriguing games to watch, including:

Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans
Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (Sunday Night)

Those are just some of the games that have close spreads and two potential playoff teams facing off, and the SI Betting team has decided to dive deeper into this slate with some insights from oddsmakers across the industry.

Ahead of Week 1, we focused on some of the teams garnering the most interest, the Packers-Vikings odds movement for not only Week 1, but the 2026 season as a whole and multiple games to keep an eye on for some late spread movement.

Let’s dive right into these key storylines that we’ve been keeping an eye on ahead of kickoff on Sunday.

Packers vs. Vikings Odds Movement

The Green Bay Packers opened as favorites in Week 1 against the Minnesota Vikings, but that line has flipped, as Kyler Murray and the Vikes are 1.5-point favorites and -122 on the moneyline at home.

Green Bay placed Micha Parsons on the PUP list, knocking him out for at least four games, and Josh Jacobs (Commissioner’s Exempt List) is now up in the air going forward for Green Bay. All that uncertainty has impacted how Green Bay is viewed entering Sunday’s action.

“Josh Jacobs and Micah Parsons represent over 10 percent of the Packers' salary cap this year, so they certainly make a large impact, and their absence certainly led to the line movement from -2.5 to +1.5 from when we opened this line in May,” Joey Feazel, Head of Football at Caesars Sportsbook, told Sports Illustrated.

That is a pretty big swing for a Week 1 game, especially since we’ve yet to see Murray in a regular season game with his new team. Oddsmakers clearly believe he’s an upgrade over J.J. McCarthy, yet the Vikings are still fourth in the odds to win the NFC North this season.

So, the move away from Green Bay is interesting since it is still expected to have a better 2026 season overall.

“A guy like Parsons, he's a significant loss for this game,” Johnny Avello, Director of Race and Sports Operations for DraftKings Sportsbook told Sports Illustrated. “His worth is in the vicinity of 1.5 points, while Jacobs is – he's not as impactful. Josh Jacobs is considered middle of the pack, so to speak, for all running backs in the league, and he's worth about maybe half a point. So for price adjustments on the game, we moved the Vikings – the whole game, the Vikings 1.5-point favorite after opening the Pack as the favorite at 1.5.”

Other books – like BetMGM and Fanatics – already had baked in the possibility of Parsons missing Week 1, leading to a little less of a swing in the line overall. Still, things have shifted towards Minnesota there as well.

“Parsons was expected so that was already baked into the Week 1 line and season outlook,” Christian Cipollini, Senior Trading Manager at BetMGM told Sports Illustrated. “Jacobs changes things more but for Week 1 not much movement as this game was already close to a PK.”

Ultimately, Green Bay’s outlook on a week-to-week basis will change once Parsons – a Defensive Player of the Year candidate – is able to return.

"The Packers price is weighted towards Parsons more than Jacobs,” a FanDuel Trader told Sports Illustrated. “If Parsons were playing, the Packers would be power rated close to their full strength."

When it comes to the futures market, the uncertainty around Green Bay has also received some mixed results.

How Green Bay Is Priced in Futures Market

The Packers were around +1800 in terms of a consensus price to win the Super Bowl towards the end of the preseason, but that has dropped closer to +2000 at most books.

“But where it did change is the season-long outlook,” Ty Gour, Sports Trader at Fanatics Sportsbook told Sports Illustrated. “It did shift negatively. Their Super Bowl odds were 18-to-1 on June 1st, and now they're sitting at 20-to-1. And yeah, like nobody in the division has really gotten much better in that time frame, so it does tell you that there's some negative market sentiment on the Packers. And depending on how Week 1 goes, we could expect those odds to shift wildly the other way as well.”

Losing a division game to open the season would be a major blow for the Pack, especially since all four teams in the NFC North were over .500 in the 2025 season. Green Bay also has a tough schedule in the middle of the season, facing eight games in a row against potential playoff teams: Tampa Bay, Chicago, Dallas, Detroit, Carolina, New England, Minnesota and the Los Angeles Rams.

So, a slow start could do some damage to the Pack in 2026.

“Losing a key divisional game to start the year will certainly make an impact on how the season outlook will shape out, so that Week 1 line movement and expected win probability have made an impact,” Feazel said.

DraftKings made an adjustment to both the Packers’ division odds and win total ahead of Week 1, but interestingly enough, a lot of sharps have come in on the new win total price, a sign that they still believe in Green Bay to make the playoffs.

“We took them up to +240 to win the division,” Avello said. “We moved the juice a little on their 9.5 win – now this is interesting – on their win total, we moved the juice. At 9.5, they were bet under a little bit, so, we moved the juice a little bit to the under side. But, we noticed that after that adjustment, we're seeing a bunch of sharp money come on – and this is more recently – on the over. So, that's not shy of the sharp players and the bettors just in general of betting this team over. So, they know that long term, the team's probably going to be good and make the playoffs. Might be a little bit shaky of a road at the beginning of the season.”

The result in Week 1 could have a major impact on where the Packers’ fall in the futures market going forward.

Which Teams Have Received the Most Bets in Week 1?

We polled several oddsmakers to find out which team is receiving the most bets ahead of Week 1, and there is a good mix of squads depending on the book.

BetMGM

Most Bet Team(s): Dallas Cowboys

“Cowboys are the most bet team to cover in Week 1,” Cipollini said. “Seahawks and Rams are popular picks in the two early games this week.”

Caesars

Most Bet Team(s): Detroit Lions, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos

“The Seahawks, Rams, Lions, Bills, Bengals, and Broncos are receiving the most bets in Week 1,” Feazel said.

It’s notable that Denver – a road underdog on Monday night – is one of the most bet teams this week.

DraftKings

Most Bet Team(s): Detroit Lions, Chicago Bears, Los Angeles Chargers, Philadelphia Eagles

“tThe Lions are a team that's receiving quite a bit of action,” Avello said. “They're home against the Saints. I particularly think that's a very difficult game for the Lions. … But to answer your question for bets: Top teams, Lions, Bears, Chargers, Eagles – all those teams have been taking quite a high volume on the bet side.”

Fanatics

Most Bet Team(s): Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Chargers

“For money lines, the Lions are our most-bet team,” Gour said. “This is pretty par for the course for us. We're a very pro-Michigan book, or in the sense of the actual kind of action that we take. “So, Lions most-bet for us. And then Rams number two, being on Thursday night. And then big favorites Jags and Chargers three and four respectively.”

Games to Watch for Line Movement Ahead of Sunday

There are few games that were pinpointed as potential matchups where the line could change ahead of Sunday's kickoff for varying reasons.

Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings

“We have seen the most line movement come on the Packers/Vikings matchup,” Feazel said. “The Vikings have moved from +2.5 to 0 to -1.5. This is a combination of the excitement that Kyler Murray brings to the table, with Kevin O'Connell calling the plays and the Packers missing some key pieces in Week 1.”

Gour also shared that Packers-Vikings is the most likely matchup to see the spread move, mentioning Jacobs’ status being in question and the fact that Kyler Murray is making a debut with a new team and that it’s unclear how the Vikings’ offense will look.

Cleveland Browns vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars are already heavily favored in Week 1, but Avello is preparing for the public to continue to back the Jaguars with Deshaun Watson under center for Cleveland.

“But the Browns at the Jags, we opened the game Jags -7, and it's most likely going to see 9, maybe even higher at kickoff,” he said. “And this is a combination of the public betting against a perceived substandard Browns team who lost one of the top defensive players in the league, and are also projected to finish last in their division, versus a team who's projected to contend for the title in their division.

“Plus, Deshaun Watson, I mean, what he might do on the field is just totally unclear. I mean, he's in a quarterback competition with [Shedeuer] Sanders, he won the job, and not sure what he's going to be like out there. I mean, he just hasn't been the guy that we saw when he first entered the league.”

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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