Sportsbook Insiders: Oddsmakers Weigh in on Falcons' Tua vs. Penix Battle

The Atlanta Falcons have a quarterback issue that is yet to be solved. They decided to keep four quarterbacks on their 53-man roster, but it looks like before Week 1 even begins, they'll have to turn to their No. 3 guy, Cooper Rush, to start.

Michael Penix Jr. isn't fully recovered from his knee injury he suffered last season, and Tua Tagovailoa suffered an injury this week, likely leading to Rush starting in Week 1 against the Steelers.

Let's back up a bit before the Week 1 game kicks off and re-examine the quarterback battle between the top two options.

Tagovailoa was expected to be the Week 1 starter throughout the offseason, but after poor play in training camp and the preseason, rumors were circulating that Penix Jr. would get the Week 1 start if he was ready to go.

While we can have the debate all we want about which quarterback is better, we can turn to the betting market to find our answer, so that's exactly what I did this week. I spoke to oddsmakers and traders at several of the top books in the country to find out how they value one quarterback compared to the other when it comes to setting the odds for a Falcons game.

A couple of sportsbooks believe that Penix is better than Tagovailoa, but only by half a point.

Christian Cipollini, a Senior Trading Manager from BetMGM, echoed that belief. "If Penix was fully healthy and were to start we might move half a point to get to -3 but the spread difference between the two QBs won't be much more than a point all season. "

Ty Gour, a Sports Trader at Fanatics Sportsbook, also said he would expect a half-point move at most: "If Penix was the starter, I don't know how much it moves. It wouldn't move more than a point I'd say, towards the Falcons, maybe half a point."

If the line did move, Gour said it would likely be due to Tagovailoa's poor preseason performance. "His preseason performance was so poor that it really started to change how we looked at that quarterback room as a whole".

Meanwhile, a few other sportsbooks see virtually no difference between the Falcons' top two quarterbacks. Caesars Sportsbook's Head of Football, Joey Feazel, talked about how Penix's lack of practice during training camp puts his value at the same as Tagovailoa's heading into Week 1:

“If Penix were announced as the starter, I do not think the line would have moved toward the Falcons. He had very limited practice opportunities throughout training camp, and to expect him to be fully ready without the reps would not make sense to add toward the Falcons' win probability.”

Finally, Johnny Avello, the Director of Race and Sports Operations for DraftKings Sportsbook, definitively stated he sees no difference between the top two options for the Falcons:

"We don't see a difference between the two when it comes to their value over replacement. They're about the same as we see it."

So, there you have it. While Falcons faithful may be clamoring for their third-year quarterback to take over the starting role as soon as possible, it may not actually help Atlanta's chances of winning as we get into the 2026 NFL season.

With that being said, DraftKings Sportsbook has now moved the Falcons from +3.5 to +5.5 with the expectation that Cooper Rush will start for them in Week 1, so the Tua vs. Penix debate will have to last another week at least.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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