Sportsbook Insiders: Teams Rising and Falling After Week 1, Insights Vikings vs. Bears Odds, Sam Darnold

A loaded Sunday slate in Week 2 of the 2026 NFL season is ahead, and several teams are looking to avoid a dreaded 0-2 start, especially those with preseason playoff expectations.

While there can be a ton of overreaction to Week 1, the betting odds always give us an idea of where each team stands early in the season. The Los Angeles Chargers may have been upset in shocking fashion in Week 1, but the market still views them as the better team at home against the Las Vegas Raiders.

This week, the SI Betting team spoke to several oddsmakers across the industry to get some insight into Week 2, including which teams are trending up and down. Plus, we dove deep into how some injuries have already impacted this season, including what a few quarterbacks are worth to the spread.

As we gear up for another loaded Sunday of NFL action, here are some of the major storylines to watch and how they’ll impact the betting odds for Week 2.

Teams Trending Up in Sportsbook Power Ratings

There were several teams that made a statement in Week 1, including Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, who blew out the Denver Broncos on Monday night as 2.5-point favorites.

In talking to oddsmakers, a few teams kept coming up as risers in their power ratings after Week 1: the New York Jets, the Arizona Cardinals, the New York Giants, the San Francisco 49ers, and the Baltimore Ravens.

“The risers were the 49ers – they certainly played over expectations – they played a great game,” Johnny Avello, Director of Race and Sports Operations for DraftKings Sportsbook, told Sports Illustrated. “Ravens were outstanding; they moved forward. Cardinals, Jets, they both played well; they did rise a little. Got to be careful with this type of elevation on these teams. You know, the sample size was one week.

“The Giants, they played a great game, and they just looked in concert and really cohesive. We knew that the Giants would be a better team, certainly a better-coached team, but they just played outstanding.”

Joey Feazel, Head of Football at Caesars Sportsbook, told Sports Illustrated that the Chiefs, Ravens and Giants all received a bump after Week 1, and that has actually impacted the odds for the Giants’ Monday Night Football clash with the Los Angeles Rams this week.

“Myles Garrett's injury made an adjustment to how this Rams team is viewed by the market,” Feazel said. “Couple that with a clearly more poised Jaxson Dart under Harbaugh, the market moved from the 9.5-point look-ahead to the flat 7 we see today.”

The Ravens, Chiefs, 49ers, and Giants all saw significant positive moves to their Super Bowl odds following Week 1.

Teams Trending Down in Sportsbook Power Ratings

The biggest upset in Week 1 of the 2026 season was the Cardinals’ win over the Los Angeles Chargers, which has completely changed the sentiment around L.A. this season.

“We had a couple big fallers, Chargers being the biggest,” Ty Gour, Sports Trader at Fanatics Sportsbook, told Sports Illustrated about teams that moved in their power rating after Week 1. “The reason being – there is there's a term I like to use, and it's a pretty popular term as well – just like that was a bankable win against Arizona. It's one they really should have had. And the fact that they didn't, and with the schedule they have, it's going to be really tough for them to get to the 10-win threshold.

“It takes them from a team we've viewed as a playoff team to a team that we view as struggling to get into the playoffs now.”

Los Angeles is favored by 6.5 points at most books against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 2, but that line could’ve been higher had the Chargers not fallen flat against Arizona.

“The Chargers are the main one as they had the worst loss of the weekend,” Christian Cipollini, Senior Trading Manager at BetMGM, told Sports Illustrated. “They would likely be 7-point favorites this week with a better performance against the Cardinals.”

The Denver Broncos, Miami Dolphins, Carolina Panthers. Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans were mentioned as other teams that have fallen in power ratings.

Avello explained that the Browns and Titans confirmed the power rating the had for them this season with poor showings on Sunday.

“Browns and Titans, they just solidified that they're just ineffective, so they also were adjusted downward,” he said.

In addition to that, the Carolina defense, which was torched by the Chicago Bears in Week 1, was one of the units downgraded by Gour and Fanatics Sportsbook.

“The Panthers saw a big fall,” he said. “That defense was – we don't know if it was a really good offense or a really bad defense – or a combination of both. So, we have to keep that in mind going forward.”

Kyler Murray Injury Impacts Vikings vs. Bears Odds

Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kyler Murray suffered a concussion in Week 1, putting his status in question for Week 2 against the Bears. We polled several oddsmakers to see how they feel about the Minnesota quarterback room in Week 2 and beyond.

BetMGM: “The line was around Bears -3 in the preseason, so about -2.5 points after losing Kyler Murray,” Cipollini said. “Wentz did look good, that's probably what's stopping this line from going to 6.”

Caesars: “Certainly, Kyler Murray being doubtful has made an impact on the spread from the lookahead line of -3.5,” Feazel said. “Carson Wentz's performance did not have an impact on how we view that QB room.”

Fanatics: “It opened at 2.5 for the Bears, and we ended up moving it to 4.5 after Sunday's games,” Gour said. “Obviously with the Kyler news and the expectation that he's not going to play, as well as the Bears' overperformance against Carolina and just how good that offense looked. It wasn't entirely a two-point move, Kyler to Wentz, probably more like 1 to 1.5, and then the Bears' steam moving it up afterwards.

“It definitely changed our outlook for that room. Heading in, just like everybody else, with how early they announced Kyler as the starter, kind of thought that was a done deal. And then, especially with it was a bit of a murky situation with Kevin O'Connell saying he'd be week-to-week for the number two quarterback. And then Carson Wentz comes in and plays as well as he did, and I think he's locked down that No. 2. Even to the point where when Kyler comes back, if he struggles, I don't know if there'll be a hesitation to pull him. Wentz looked really good against a really good defense.”

DraftKings: “Kyler Murray is worth roughly around 2.5 points or so, even though the Vikings won on Sunday with Wentz,” Avello said. “Overall, Minnesota's offense was, I would say, somewhat unimpressive, and Green Bay played really poorly defensively. So, more than saying Minnesota was outstanding, I would say Green Bay presented the game gift-wrapped to them. When we had the lookahead line, Chicago was -3. They actually went up as high as 5.5, and then it came back to 4.5. So, he's certainly worth something. I don't know how much you want to look into as Wentz being the answer. I don't think he is, but Week 1 showed that he could come in and certainly give them what they needed to contend, and they did in that game.”

Expect a Lot of Justin Jefferson if Carson Wentz Starts?

Gour shared that Wentz’s presence in Week 2 could lead to an adjustment on Justin Jefferson’s props after the star receiver went for 92 yards and two scores in Week 1.

“The only thing beyond that with that room is just whenever Wentz is QB, we're going to see hyper-targeting of Justin Jefferson, which obviously affects how we treat his props,” Gour said. “We know that Wentz is looking at him non-stop and pretty much as the only guy on the field. Nobody else really saw the ball once he came into the game as far as the passing game goes. So, just something to keep an eye out for us.”

How Much Sam Darnold Is Worth to Spread in Seahawks vs. Cardinals

The Seattle Seahawks won’t have starting quarterback Sam Darnold in Week 2 against Arizona, paving the way for Drew Lock to make another start. Sports Illustrated spoke to several oddsmakers about how much Darnold is worth to the spread compared to Lock.

The range was anywhere from three to five points, and it’s become pretty clear that the public likes the Cardinals in Week 2.

BetMGM: “Losing the starting QB for what sounds like a few weeks is significant,” Cipollini said. “They would have been closer to -7 preseason and now at -4. Plus, the Cardinals looked better than expected in Week 1.”

Caesars: “Sam Darnold is worth around 3-4 points compared to Drew Lock,” Feazel said.

Fanatics: “We initially had this one uh down as a three-point drop from Darnold to Lock,” Gour said. “Lock being a capable NFL backup with starting experience. So, this game opened up at 8.5 before in the lookahead, and then once Darnold went down, that line dropped to 5.5 right off the bat. And then we factored in the Cardinals' surprise win as well and moved that to 4.5 on Sunday night, and that line is actually further steamed down now to 3.5. So, the public seems to really like the Cardinals at home in this matchup. It'll be interesting to see if that line moves any further as we head into the weekend.”

DraftKings: “Darnold's worth probably around five points,” Avello said. “We opened that game Seattle -10, and with Arizona looking much better, we reopened it at Seattle -4.5. With Drew Lock getting a full week to prepare off a few extra days with Seattle playing that past Wednesday, that's worth a little bit extra also. The bettors still like the Cards in this one right now, with the line now dropping down to four for the home opener. So, they like what they saw from the Cards last week; maybe they didn't like what they saw from Seattle, although they won the game, but they were a little bit sloppy in the second half.”

How Australia Travel is Priced in for Rams, 49ers in Week 2 and Beyond

After playing a one-of-a-kind season opener in Australia, both the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers return to play home games in Week 2.

While some oddsmakers said that they didn’t make any adjustment for travel for these games, DraftKings is looking at this as something to consider over the next few weeks.

“Really no drastic changes to Week 2 lines based on the Australia travel, given both teams had a few extra days to get back and reacclimate to their normal environment, and they've both got a couple of home games here,” Avello said. “We do overall expect San Francisco to be a little more impacted, as they were in Australia for the longest time, but they are the recipient of playing a substandard Dolphins team. So, it's something that we're going to have to keep an eye on for a few weeks, not only Week 2, to see where it goes for Week 3 and Week 4.”

Caesars ended up moving the Rams line more due to the Giants' play, but they are keeping an eye on San Francisco after it spent a longer time in Australia.

“The return travel would seemingly affect the 49ers far more since they were acclimated to Australia time as opposed to the Rams, who were quick in and out,” Feazel said. “Miami's performance on Sunday did not convince anyone that the 49ers' travel schedule would affect them against the Dolphins. The Rams' line moved, but more so due to the Giants' overperformance on Sunday night.”

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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