Sportsbook Insiders: Tracking Latest NFL MVP Odds, Biggest Liabilities, Caleb Williams Factor, More

All season long, the NFL MVP will be a key discussion, especially since there is a strong group of candidates through the first three weeks.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen remains the favorite in the market, but there are several players – Brock Purdy, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence – that are 10/1 or shorter to win the award this season.

With such a robust chasing pack through three weeks, Sports Illustrated spoke with several oddsmakers about where the action is coming in the MVP market and which players currently present the biggest liability for the books.

2026 NFL MVP Odds

Josh Allen: +260
Brock Purdy: +425
Lamar Jackson: +600
Patrick Mahomes: +800
Joe Burrow: +850
Trevor Lawrence: +1000
Dak Prescott: +2000
Matthew Stafford: +2800
Jahmyr Gibbs: +2800
Jalen Hurts: +3500
Tyler Shough: +3500
Jared Goff: +4500
Jordan Love: +5000
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: +5500
Caleb Williams: +5500
Bo Nix: +6000

Allen is the consensus favorite, but the odds have changed quite a bit over the last few weeks with last year’s MVP runner-up Drake Maye falling completely out of contention and Caleb Williams (+5500) falling back in the market due to his hamstring injury.

“Josh Allen, clear number one as of right now, but as I mentioned earlier, we're keeping a close eye on his knee and his health heading into Week 4, and even just the game plan that the Bills decide to trot out,” Ty Gour, Sports Trader at Fanatics Sportsbook, told Sports Illustrated. “Are they going to run with [James] Cook more, or are they going to stop doing as many designed runs? Does he stop getting the goal-line carries? That's all going to factor into his MVP price as we see it happen in real time, because if they take away the rushing stats from Josh Allen, his statistical case is going to drop.”

Meanwhile, Week 3 was a major step forward for Purdy and Lawrence, who are among the quarterbacks receiving the most love from bettors.

Trevor Lawrence, Brock Purdy Receiving Action Ahead of Week 4

The MVP race is always exciting when some of the most popular – and talented – quarterbacks are in the mix, and that’s the case so far in 2026.

“Trevor Lawrence received some support this week,” Johnny Avello, Director of Race and Sports Operations for DraftKings Sportsbook, told Sports Illustrated. “He's now down to 10 to 1. And you're right, Brock Purdy, he's 4.25/1, he's also the recipient of some love.”

Purdy appears to be the clear No. 2 to Allen in this market after leading San Francisco to a 3-0 start this season. The former seventh-round pick has completed well over 70 percent of his passes for 789 yards, nine scores and one pick. He’s also added 93 yards and a score on the ground.

Lawrence came up big in Week 3, blowing out the New England Patriots for the Jaguars’ second win of the season. After a strong finish to 2025, Lawrence has really established himself as an MVP contender in Liam Coen’s offense.

Joe Burrow’s MVP Stock Rising?

Several oddsmakers mentioned Joe Burrow as a player that is receiving a lot of bets in the MVP market, and that he’s one of the top liabilities amongst the contending group of players.

“Caleb Williams, Brock Purdy and Joe Burrow have attracted significant wagering in the MVP market behind Josh Allen,” Joey Feazel, Head of Football at Caesars Sportsbook, told Sports Illustrated. “Most of Williams’ support came during the offseason, while Purdy has been gaining the most momentum recently. Burrow has also drawn consistent interest, making those three our most notable liabilities within the chasing pack.”

Burrow and the Bengals are off to a 2-1 start, though a loss to Pittsburgh in Week 3 could hurt them in the AFC North race. The biggest key for the Bengals’ quarterback is staying healthy, something that has hindered his case in previous seasons.

So far in 2026, Burrow has completed 70.9 percent of his passes for 743 yards, six scores and just one pick. He doesn’t have the rushing upside of players like Allen, Jackson or Lawrence, but Burrow remains one of the best passers in the NFL.

“Joe Burrow would be our biggest liability out of the contending group, we'll call them.” Gour said.

Caleb Williams Remains a Major Liability for NFL MVP

Williams moved as high as third in the odds to win the MVP after Week 1, but he’s fallen back to +5500 after missing time with a hamstring injury that could completely end his MVP case if he doesn’t return soon.

“It's a bit of a two-pronged argument, because the team winning games without Caleb isn't necessarily a dock to Caleb's stock, but it is more so a situation where Ben Johnson may not be in a rush to get him back,” Gour said. “If Case Keenum goes 4-0 and Caleb looks shaky in that next practice, they have the opportunity to give him one more week to get ready since at the end of the day, the Super Bowl is the bigger goal for the team.

“And the real thing that will hurt his MVP race and price in the long run is availability. If he only plays 12 games, he would need to set the world on fire to be able to put up a resume that's going to be on the level of those top candidates who are going to play 16, 17 games. So, it really comes down to availability and then what he does in those games, more so than what the team does without him.”

Even with Williams out of the lineup, he remains one of the biggest liabilities at just about every book that Sports Illustrated spoke with.

“Caleb Williams is the biggest liability to win MVP at BetMGM and would currently be a loser for the book,” Christian Cipollini, Senior Trading Manager at BetMGM, told Sports Illustrated.

Avello mentioned Williams as a “major hazard” for the book if he’s able to come back and win MVP, which has cooled the price for him even though he’s injured.

“To move him to 55 to 1, which he is right now, after taking so much play – he is one of our big jeopardy guys to win it all,” Avello said. “So, we raised him to 55 to 1, which means his chances are much slimmer now to win it.

“But, if he gets back earlier and does some of the magical things he's been doing over the last year/year and a quarter, he would still have the possibility to win this. So, got to be a little careful not to raise him too high, but still 55/1 is a fair price if he's going to come back quicker than we're thinking.”

Don’t Sleep on Jahmyr Gibbs?

Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs has moved from +5000 to +2800 to win MVP since the end of Week 3, making him an intriguing option in this market if a quarterback doesn’t win (it hasn’t happened since Adrian Peterson won back in 2012).

“Jahmyr Gibbs, he's 28 to 1 and he's still a formidable choice by our audience,” Avello said. “He's still getting quite a bit of play. So, I would say those two guys (Gibbs and Williams) are our biggest hazard.”

Gibbs had a monster game in the Lions’ Week 3 win over the New York Jets, finishing with 99 rushing yards, 65 receiving yards and three scores. He’s now up to over 300 rushing yards, over 150 receiving yards and six touchdowns in 2026.

“It's tough for anybody but a quarterback to win this,” Avello added. “Usually, it is a QB that comes away with the award, but, you know, if no one excels, the door opens up for someone like him.”

Other MVP Liabilities

There were a few other players further down the odds board that were mentioned as liabilities heading into Week 4.

“Our three biggest liabilities are still Caleb Williams, Tyler Shough, and Jared Goff,” Gour said. “So a lot of our liability is in that mid-range rather than the top end as of right now.”

BetMGM also shared with Sports Illustrated which players have received the most bets to win MVP since the end of Week 1:

Most Tickets to Win MVP Since the End of Week 1 (BetMGM)

Josh Allen
Caleb Williams
Brock Purdy
Tyler Shough
Patrick Mahomes

Even with the New Orleans Saints sitting at 1-2, Tyler Shough has put together a strong start to the season and is getting some love from bettors with the team favored to win the NFC South.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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