Spurs vs. Timberwolves Opening Odds for Game 6 (Spurs Favored to Close Out Series)

Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs are just one win away from reaching the Western Conference Finals, and they’re favored to win Game 6 on Friday night.

Oddsmakers have the Spurs set as 4.5-point favorites, the same number that they opened at in Games 3 and 4 in Minnesota. San Antonio ended up closing as an even bigger favorite in those games, but it won just one of them with Wemby getting ejected from Game 4 after picking up a Flagrant 2 foul.

Minnesota has lost just one game at home all postseason – Game 3 of this series – but a blowout loss in Game 5 has moved the Wolves down to +15000 to win the NBA Finals. The Spurs, on the other hand, are +340 to win the title – good for the second-best odds in the league.

San Antonio has the No. 1 defensive rating and the No. 3 net rating in the 2026 playoffs, while the Wolves’ net rating has dropped to minus-3.5 after losing by double-digits in Games 2 and 5. Minnesota did keep things close in Game 3, losing by just seven points, but it needs back-to-back wins to advance to a third consecutive Western Conference Finals.

Let’s take a look at the opening odds and a preview for this Game 6 matchup.

Spurs vs. Timberwolves Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Spurs -4.5 (-115)
Timberwolves +4.5 (-105)

Moneyline

Spurs: -192
Timberwolves: +160

Total

218.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

The Spurs closed as 5.5-point favorites in both Games 3 and 4, but they only covered the spread in one of those matchups. Minnesota took Game 4 by five points, but it’s hard to take much from that game since Wembanyama was ejected in the first half.

The Wolves competed hard in Game 1 in San Antonio, pulling off an upset, but they’ve been outclassed in two of the Spurs’ three wins in this series.

When it comes to the total in this matchup, this is the fourth time that oddsmakers have set it at 218.5. The UNDER hit in Game 1, but the last four games have all gone OVER the total. In Game 2, the total came down to 217.5 and it was 216.5 in Game 3 in Minnesota.

Spurs vs. Timberwolves Game 6 Preview

There’s a lot working against the Wolves in this series, starting with the fact that over 85 percent of the teams that won Game 5 in a 2-2 series have gone on to advance in that matchup. So, Minnesota pulling out two wins would completely buck that trend, especially since the Wolves are going to be underdogs in a potential Game 7 on Sunday.

Minnesota has been up and down this season, especially after the All-Star break, and it was clearly outclassed with Wemby back in action in Game 5.

However, the Wolves are 4-1 against the spread at home in the playoffs, including three outright wins against Denver and one against the Spurs. So, there’s still a chance Anthony Edwards and company can get this to a Game 7.

The Spurs are 16-13-1 against the spread when favored on the road this season, though they didn’t pull away in Game 3, winning by just seven points.

Wemby’s impact on the defensive end has been the difference in this series, as the Spurs big man has a defensive rating of 91 while Minnesota is shooting just 41.4 percent from the field overall through five games.

In the 29-point win in Game 5, the former No. 1 overall pick was plus-24 in his minutes while the Spurs were minus-2 with Luke Kornet in the game (11 minutes).

Minnesota needs more from Julius Randle in Game 6, as he’s shooting just 36.6 percent from the field in this series, averaging 14.8 points per game. Jaden McDaniels (40.5 percent from the field in this series) has also struggled on offense.

There’s no doubt that San Antonio’s defense has outclassed Minnesota’s and one has to wonder how much longer the Wolves can hold up without Donte DiVincenzo. Edwards has played better since Game 3, but he’s carrying a massive offensive burden with the rest of the team struggling from the field.

Oddsmakers have the Spurs set as -1200 favorites to win this series, so even if they lost Game 6, there’s a good chance they’re heavily favored in Game 7.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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