Steelers vs. Browns Best NFL Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football in Week 4 (Bet on Jaylen Warren)

Thursday Night Football in Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season features an AFC North matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns, a pair of 2-1 teams through three weeks.

Both of these teams are coming off impressive wins in Week 3 as underdogs, and the Steelers are favored on the road in this AFC North matchup. These teams have split their last 12 meetings, each going 6-6, so it's possible that we see another close game in primetime on Thursday.

If you're not looking to take a side in this divisional battle, there are a ton of player props to choose from, especially since both offenses are coming off some of their better showings in 2026.

Steelers running back Jaylen Warren is one of my favorite prop targets after he dominated in a bellcow role in Week 3 with Rico Dowdle sidelined.

Now on a short week, the Steelers are likely going to rely on the veteran running back once again as they try to move to 3-1.

Here's a breakdown of all three of my favorite prop bets for Steelers vs. Browns in the first matchup in Week 4.

Best NFL Prop Bets for Steelers vs. Browns

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Jaylen Warren OVER 94.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-111)
Deshaun Watson UNDER 188.5 Passing Yards (-113)
Raheim Sanders OVER 2.5 Receptions (+144)

Jaylen Warren OVER 94.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-111)

Warren has gotten off to a strong start in 2026, averaging 5.7 yards per carry and 11.0 yards per reception. He’s coming off a monster showing in Week 3 against Cincinnati, playing 90.3 percent of the team’s snaps in the win.

The veteran back finished that game with 17 carries for 127 yards and three catches (on four targets) for 49 yards (176 yards from scrimmage). While Warren may not come near that number again in Week 4, I believe 94.5 total yards is a little low for him in this matchup.

During the first two weeks of the season, Warren finished with 73 and 77 rushing and receiving yards despite splitting time with Rico Dowdle. Since he’s set for another week as the bellcow in this offense, I think Warren is a must bet against a Browns team that is just 23rd in the NFL in EPA/Rush.

Deshaun Watson UNDER 188.5 Passing Yards (-113)

Watson has played better over the last two weeks, throwing four touchdown passes while completing 40 of his 60 pass attempts. Despite that, he hasn’t attempted more than 30 passes in a game this season, which really limits his ceiling when it comes to his passing yards props.

In Week 3, Watson was 16-for-30 for just 144 yards, and now he takes on a Pittsburgh defense that is 11th in EPA/Pass and 12th in EPA/Play overall in 2026.

With such a low total (38.5) in this game, I don’t expect either offense to shine, so I don’t mind going UNDER on this number for the Cleveland quarterback. Watson is still just 18th in EPA/Play amongst quarterbacks with at least 50 offensive snaps this season.

Raheim Sanders OVER 2.5 Receptions (+144)

Browns running back Raheim (Rocket) Sanders has been the clear third-down option behind Quinshon Judkins, playing a season-high 42.9 percent of the snaps in Week 3.

This season, Sanders has three or more receptions in two games, including a four-catch game against Carolina on Sunday. The 24-year-old was targeted five times in that game, and he has nine targets across three games in 2026.

I don’t mind this prop for Sanders, especially against a tough Pittsburgh pass rush. Watson may be forced to check the ball down a lot on Thursday, which is a great sign for Sanders, especially if his snap share continues to rise.

If you want to play it safe, Sanders is -190 to record two or more receptions in this Week 4 matchup.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and get $150 in bonus bets instantly when you make your first $5 bet.

Add us as a preferred source on Google