Sun vs. Dream Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bet for Thursday, Sept. 17

The Atlanta Dream are looking to lock up a top-four seed in the WNBA this season, and they start their final four games out of the 2026 FIBA Women's Basketball World Cup break with a cupcake matchup at home.

Atlanta is favored by double digits against the 10-win Connecticut Sun, who have the worst net rating (minus-10.9) in the WNBA this season. CT has long been eliminated from playoff contention, and it’s closing out the campaign before the franchise moves to Houston for the 2027 season.

These teams have met twice in the 2026 campaign with Atlanta winning both by huge margins. The Dream picked up a 91-75 win at home in their first meeting, and they followed that up with a 104-69 victory in CT back on Aug. 13.

So, oddsmakers are expecting yet another blowout, even though the Dream have struggled against the spread at home (7-13) this season.

Rhyne Howard, Angel Reese, Allisha Gray and Co. have to handle business against CT and Chicago over these final four games, as it ends the season with two matchups against New York that could have a major impact on the final standings before the playoffs.

Let’s take a look at the odds, injuries, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Thursday’s Eastern Conference battle.

Sun vs. Dream Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Sun +14.5 (-110)
Dream -14.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Sun: +750
Dream: -1200

Total

169.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Sun vs. Dream How to Watch

Date: Thursday, Sept.17
Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Gateway Center
How to Watch (TV): NBC Sports Boston, Victory+ Sports Network, Atlanta News First, WNBA League Pass
Sun record: 10-30
Dream record: 26-14

Sun vs. Dream Injury Reports

Sun Injury Report

Leila Lacan -- questionable
Diamond Miller -- questionable
Brittney Griner -- questionable
Kennedy Burke -- out

Dream Injury Report

Brionna Jones -- out

Sun vs. Dream Best WNBA Prop Bets

Dream Best WNBA Prop Bet

Rhyne Howard OVER 17.5 Points (-125)

Earlier today, I shared in Peter’s Points – my WNBA Best Bets column for SI – why Howard is a great prop target against the Sun:

Four-time All-Star Rhyne Howard entered the FIBA Women's Basketball World Cup break on fire, averaging 21.5 points per game over her last 12 games while shooting 43.1 percent from the field and 39.8 percent from 3.

During that 12-game stretch, Howard scored at least 18 points 10 times and didn’t have less than 16 points in any game.

She’s looking to pick up right where she left off against a Sun team that is just 12th in the WNBA in defensive rating this season. CT has nothing to play for in 2026, and it has not been able to contain Howard in two games against the Dream.

The former University of Kentucky star had 36 points against Connecticut in the June 2 meeting between these teams, shooting 8-for-19 from 3 and 12-for-24 from the field. She had a more efficient showing the last time these teams played, dropping 29 points on 7-of-10 shooting (5-of-8 from 3) in a 35-point win.

I’ll gladly bet on Howard to close out the season strong as she seeks the first All-WNBA nod of her career.

Sun vs. Dream Prediction and Pick

There are some interesting trends when it comes to this game, as the Dream are 7-13 against the spread at home while the Sun are just 6-14 against the spread when set as road underdogs.

CT has the worst net rating in the WNBA this season, and it has posted an average scoring margin of minus-12.6 points per game as a road dog in 2026. So, it wouldn’t shock me to see the Dream blow out the Sun on Thursday.

Atlanta already has wins by 16 and 35 points against CT, and it enters this game ranking fifth in offensive rating, fourth in defensive rating and fourth in net rating.

I believe the Dream are a little undervalued in the betting market as a whole with the Minnesota Lynx, Las Vegas Aces and Indiana Fever getting a ton of contention as Finals contenders. This is a balanced Dream squad that features three All-Stars in Howard, Gray and Reese.

Atlanta cannot mess around in this matchup with the Liberty waiting in the final two games of the season.

I expect the Dream to win big, and the Sun have shown that they cannot cover the spread at a high rate on the road.

Pick: Dream -14.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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