Sun vs. Valkyries Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bets for Monday, Aug. 11

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Connecticut Sun-Golden State Valkyries matchup on Monday night.

Connecticut Sun guard Marina Mabrey is a solid prop target on Monday. / Lucas Peltier-Imagn Images

The Golden State Valkyries have a chance to move into the No. 7 seed in the WNBA standings on Monday night, as they are favored at home in a standalone matchup with the Connecticut Sun.

The Sun are playing the second night of a back-to-back after they lost by eight (they did cover that spread) to the Las Vegas Aces on Sunday.

CT has just five wins this season and is by far the worst team in the W, which puts the Valkyries in a great spot to get back over .500 on Monday.

With the Seattle Storm losing on Sunday, Golden State is tied with them (both teams are .500) in the standings, although it has just a half-game lead over the Los Angeles Sparks for the final playoff spot in the W.

Golden State’s offense has struggled since All-Star Kayla Thornton’s season-ending knee injury, but can it bounce back against the worst defense in the league?

Here’s a look at the odds, my favorite prop bet and a prediction for the lone matchup in the WNBA on Aug. 11.

Sun vs. Valkyries Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Sun +9 (-112)
• Valkyries -9 (-108)

Moneyline 

• Sun: +285
• Valkyries: -360

Total

• 157 (Over -110/Under -110)

Sun vs. Valkyries How to Watch

• Date: Monday, Aug. 11
• Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Chase Center
• How to Watch (TV): KPIX+ 44, NBC SPORTS BOSTON
• Sun record: 5-25
• Valkyries record: 15-15

Sun vs. Valkyries Injury Reports

Sun Injury Report

• None to report

Valkyries Injury Report

• Kayla Thornton – out

Sun vs. Valkyries Best WNBA Prop Bets

Sun Best WNBA Prop Bet

• Marina Mabrey 15+ Points (-125)

While the Sun haven’t had a lot going for them in the 2025 season, Mabrey has started to heat up in the second half of the campaign, scoring 15 or more points in five of her last seven games since re-entering the starting lineup.

Mabrey missed time with a knee injury, but she’s looking like her usual self as of late, averaging 15.7 points per game while shooting 37.0 percent from the field and 30.4 percent from 3 over her last seven contests. During that stretch, the star guard is taking 15.4 shots (8.0 3-pointers) per game.

In her last meeting with Golden State, Mabrey had 15 points in less than 21 minutes in a 31-point win. I expect her to be right back around this number on Monday, as the Sun don’t have many proven scoring options that they can rely on. 

Sun vs. Valkyries Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why the UNDER is the play in this standalone matchup:

These teams played in late July in Connecticut, and the Sun dominated that game, winning 95-64.

There were 159 total points scored in that matchup – right around this total on Monday – and that came with CT having an unusually great offensive game.

The Sun currently rank dead last in:

• Offensive Rating (94.8)
• Defensive Rating (110.1)
• Net Rating (-15.3)
• Effective Field Goal Percentage (45.5%)
• True Shooting Percentage (50.4%)
• Assist Ratio (15.8)

They’re also second to last in the W in assist/turnover ratio this season. Simply put, this is a bad Sun team, and not one that we should expect will thrive on offense again. The Valkyries rank sixth in the W in defensive rating and second in opponent points per game, as they love to slow games down, playing at the slowest pace in the league.

Not only that, but Golden State’s offense has slipped to 10th in the W with Thornton out for the season, and the Valkyries have failed to crack 80 points in seven straight games.

During that seven-game stretch, they have cleared 157 points on just two occasions, a 31-point loss to the Sun and a 24-point loss to the Las Vegas Aces.

If this game ends up being a close one – or Golden State wins – it’s likely going to be low scoring. I’ll take the UNDER, which is 20-10 in the Valkyries' games this season, on Monday night.  

Pick: UNDER 157 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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