Suns vs. Thunder Prediction, Odds and Best Prop Bets for NBA Playoffs Game 2

It’s hard to have a better start to the playoffs than the one that the Oklahoma City Thunder had in Game 1 of the first round against the Phoenix Suns.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and company blew out the Suns by 35 points on Sunday afternoon, holding Phoenix to just 84 points in the process. The Suns had multiple losses by 20-plus points to OKC during the regular season, but it was pretty shocking to see them struggle to compete on the playoff stage.

Since Sunday’s win, OKC has moved all the way up to -105 to win the NBA Finals at DraftKings Sportsbook, and it’s heavily favored at home in Game 2.

Oddsmakers have set the Thunder as 17.5-point favorites, and OKC is also favored to sweep the Suns in this series. That shouldn’t come as a shock, as OKC is now 9-0 in the first round over the last three postseasons.

This is a tricky game to bet on, as OKC is clearly the better team, but laying 17.5 points in a playoff game seems a little crazy.

I’ve done the work to come away with a few picks for bettors to consider, including a player prop selection, for Wednesday’s Game 2.

Suns vs. Thunder Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Suns +17.5 (-110)
Thunder -17.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Suns: +1100
Thunder: -2100

Total

214.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Suns vs. Thunder How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, April 22
Time: 9:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Paycom Center
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
Series: OKC leads 1-0

Suns vs. Thunder Injury Reports

Suns Injury Report

Grayson Allen -- questionable
Jordan Goodwin -- questionable
Mark Williams -- questionable

Thunder Injury Report

Thomas Sorber -- out

Suns vs. Thunder Best NBA Prop Bet

Thunder Best NBA Prop Bet

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 5.5 Assists (-154)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why SGA is a great prop target in Game 2:

Even though he struggled shooting the ball in OKC’s Game 1 win, Gilgeous-Alexander still was an impact passer for the Thunder, dishing out seven assists. He’s now picked up at least six dimes in five consecutive games.

During the regular season, SGA had six, eight and eight assists in his games against the Suns, so I’m not all that worried about Phoenix ranking seventh in the NBA in opponent assists per game. With OKC fully healthy, SGA has plenty of options to target as a passer.

He averaged 6.6 assists per game during the regular season, and it’s worth noting that he recorded 15.0 potential assists in Game 1, even though he played just 29:11 in the win.

I think this line had moved down way too low for the MVP favorite in Game 2.

Suns vs. Thunder Prediction and Pick

Oklahoma City’s defense is absolutely dominant, and it showed in a playoff setting that it can shut down a team that has an elite scorer (Devin Booker in this case) and hold it way under 100 points.

The Thunder kept the Suns under 100 points once in five regular-season meetings, and they held them under 110 points three times. Oddsmakers have Phoenix’s team total at 98.5 in Game 2, and I’m going to hammer the UNDER.

During the regular season, the Thunder allowed 107.9 points per game – No. 2 in the NBA – while also ranking No. 1 in defensive rating. With Cason Wallace, Lu Dort, Alex Caruso and others on the wing, the Suns have a lot to navigate to get Booker, Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks good shots.

To make matters worse, the Suns were just 17th in the league in offensive rating and 26th in points per game during the regular season. So, it’s not surprising at all to see this offense get bogged down against an elite defense.

Rather than lay the 17.5 points on Wednesday, I’ll simply bet on the one thing that always shows up: OKC’s defense.

Pick: Suns Team Total UNDER 98.5 (-118 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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