Suns vs. Thunder Series Prediction, Odds, Best Bets for NBA Playoffs (OKC Set as Biggest First-Round Favorite)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder begin their title defense with a first-round matchup against the Phoenix Suns, who earned the No. 8 seed in the West with a play-in win over the Golden State Warriors on Friday night.

Phoenix squandered a chance to get the No. 7 seed – losing at home to Portland earlier in the week – but it completed an impressive bounce-back season by earning a playoff berth against the No. 10-seeded Warriors.

Now, the Suns are set as massive underdogs against the Thunder, who have not lost a first-round game in back-to-back seasons and are the No. 1 seed in the West for the third season in a row. OKC led the NBA in net rating and defensive rating in the regular season, and it finally has Jalen Williams, SGA and Chet Holmgren all healthy – just in time for the playoffs.

Oddmakers have set the Thunder at +130 to sweep this series, but these teams are very familiar with each other after meeting five times in the regular season, though one of those games was Game 82 where both squads sat players.

OKC has two blowout wins over the Suns, but Devin Booker and company did have a win over a nearly fully healthy Thunder team in their third meeting this season. So, can Phoenix at least steal a game in this first-round matchup?

Let’s take a look at all the different series markets that are available, as well as my prediction for this first-round battle in the Western Conference.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Suns vs. Thunder Series Odds

Suns: +1300
Thunder: -3000

Based on these odds, the Suns have an implied probability of over 96 percent to beat the Thunder in the first round of the playoffs. The defending champs are the biggest favorites in the first round of the postseason.

Suns vs. Thunder Series Spread

Suns: +2.5 (+240)
Thunder: -2.5 (-300)

Suns vs. Thunder Series Correct Score

Thunder in 4: +130
Thunder in 5: +205
Thunder in 6: +550
Thunder in 7: +900
Suns in 6: +3500
Suns in 7: +4000
Suns in 5: +8000
Suns in 4: +12000

Suns vs. Thunder Series Total Games

5.5 (Over +255/Under -320)

The Thunder are not only the biggest first-round favorite, but oddsmakers are expecting them to make quick work of the Suns. OKC is heavily favored to end this series in five or fewer games, with an OKC sweep set at +130.

Suns vs. Thunder Series Prediction

The defending champs had a massive second half of the season, holding off the San Antonio Spurs for the No. 1 seed in the West.

OKC has swept the New Orleans Pelicans and Memphis Grizzlies in back-to-back seasons in the first round, and it’s heavily favored to do the same against the Phoenix Suns. The Suns won two of the five meetings between these teams in the regular season, though the final meeting (on April 12) was the final game of the regular season where the Thunder rested a ton of players.

The three wins that OKC had against Phoenix were by four, 49 and 27 points.

After finishing with the best net rating and defensive rating in the NBA in the regular season, I expect the Thunder to make quick work of a Suns team that can defend (ninth in defensive rating), but struggles on offense (17th in offensive rating). The Suns simply lack shot creation after Devin Booker and Jalen Green, and I don’t expect Green will duplicate his massive play-in showing against Golden State when he’s being guarded by Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace and OKC’s plethora of elite perimeter defenders.

Pick: Thunder in 4 (-3000, +130)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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