Tampa Bay Buccaneers Win Total Projection for 2026 Season (Buccaneers Are Underrated)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were in control of the NFC South when they entered their Week 9 BYE last season, holding a 6-2 record. They then went 2-7 the rest of the way to finish with an 8-9 record, which wasn't good enough to win the division.

They'll look to rebound in Baker Mayfield's fourth season as the team's quarterback. In order to do so, they'll have to win the NFC South, which is a division that doesn't have any elite team in it, but it also doesn't have a terrible team, meaning it's wide open for anyone to win.

Let's dive into their projected win total for the 2026 campaign.

2026 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Projected Win Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

OVER 8.5 Wins (+115)
UNDER 8.5 Wins (-136)

The Buccaneers' win total is set at 8.5, with the UNDER juiced to -136 for the upcoming season. That means they have a 57.63% implied probability of going 8-9 or worse in 2026.

I think that makes the Buccaneers an underrated team heading into the season. Let's remember that during their 2-7 stretch in the second half of the season, they had four straight losses to close out the year, all by four points or less. I expect some late-game variance to swing back in their favor.

There's also no doubting that the Buccaneers have the best quarterback in the division. The Falcons have a huge question mark at the position; Tyler Shough still has some developing to do, and Bryce Young isn't the guy in Carolina.

The most important factor for the Buccaneers this season is that their offensive line is expected to be healthy after being decimated last year. Tristan Wirfs, their All-Pro left tackle, will be ready to go, which is going to make a huge difference when it comes to Mayfield's production.

They aren't going to be a Super Bowl contender this year, but I expect them to re-establish themselves as the best team in the division and to hit the OVER on their win total of 8.5

Pick: OVER 8.5 Wins (+115) via DraftKings

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