Tempo vs. Lynx Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bet for Tuesday, July 28

Everything is pointing up for the Minnesota Lynx as they enter the second half of the WNBA season.

Napheesa Collier is back after returning on Wednesday, July 22 against the Seattle Storm, and the Lynx have won seven games in a row. Collier had 24 points and 10 rebounds in just 22 minutes against the Storm, and she and Olivia Miles should form one of the best duos in the WNBA to close this regular season.

Meanwhile, the Tempo are six games under .500 and just 2-8 in their last 10. Marina Mabrey has been forced to do a lot of heavy lifting with Kiki Rice (questionable tonight) and Brittney Sykes (out tonight) missing time, and the Tempo have fallen to last in the W in defensive rating.

So, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the Lynx are favored by double digits at home on Tuesday.

Here’s a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction as Collier and Co. aim to extend their winning streak to eight.

Tempo vs. Lynx Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Tempo +14.5 (-110)
Lynx -14.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Tempo: +740
Lynx: -1300

Total

184.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Tempo vs. Lynx How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, July 28
Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Target Center
How to Watch (TV): The Sports Network, Victory+ Sports Network, WNBA League Pass
Tempo record: 10-16
Lynx record: 22-6

Tempo vs. Lynx Injury Reports

Tempo Injury Report

Kiki Rice -- questionable
Brittney Sykes -- out
Nyara Sabally -- questionable
Isabelle Harrison -- questionable

Lynx Injury Report

Emma Cechova -- out

Tempo vs. Lynx Best WNBA Prop Bets

Lynx Best WNBA Prop Bet

Napheesa Collier OVER 19.5 Points (-112)

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I’m buying Collier in the prop market:

I’m going to buy Collier at this discounted number until the market shifts when she returns to her usual minutes.

The All-WNBA forward needed just 22 minutes to score 24 points against the Seattle Storm (No. 8 in the league in defensive rating), and she took a whopping 20 shots in that game.

Now, the Lynx superstar gets to take on the worst defense in the league in Toronto (15th in defensive rating), which is allowing 92.9 points per game. This should be an easy win for the Lynx, and Collier’s usage was pretty strong in her season debut for a player that is coming off a major ankle injury.

Last season, Collier averaged 22.9 points per game, and she’s averaged at least 20 points per game in each of her last three seasons. She’s a great prop target as her role should expand in the coming weeks.

Tempo vs. Lynx Prediction and Pick

Before the break, I discussed a troubling trend for the Lynx in the betting market, even though they remain one of the best teams in the league when it comes to covering the spread.

Minnesota has not won a game by 11 or more points since June 17 when it beat the Los Angeles Sparks by 16. The Lynx have gone 12 straight games where they would have failed to cover this number, including Wednesday’s 10-point win against Seattle. That was the seventh win in a row for the Lynx, but they’ve struggled to win those games by a wide margin.

Even with Collier back, I think this line is a little high against the Tempo, who have proven they can score with anyone in the league.

Toronto is seventh in the league in offensive rating, sixth in effective field goal percentage and seventh in points per game. Now, it did lose to the Lynx by 28 points earlier this year, but this recent trend with the Lynx is extremely concerning.

Plus, the Tempo have been solid as underdogs this season, going 10-9 against the spread, including a 7-3 mark against the spread on the road.

Pick: Tempo +14.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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