Tempo vs. Mercury Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bet for Tuesday, May 19

All eyes in the WNBA will be on Phoenix, Ariz. on Tuesday night, as the Toronto Tempo hit the road to play the Phoenix Mercury in a standalone game.

Both of these teams are 2-2 to start the 2026 season, but the Mercury and Kahleah Copper are favored by 7.5 points at home after beating the Chicago Sky on Friday night.

The Tempo are coming off a 10-point win over the Los Angeles Sparks on Sunday, and they’ve moved to 3-1 against the spread in their first season as a franchise. Brittney Sykes, Kiki Rice and Marina Mabrey have formed an exciting guard trio for Toronto, but will it be able to keep up with a Mercury team that made the WNBA Finals in 2025?

Oddsmakers don’t seem to think so, though the Mercury did lose a key piece from last year’s Finals run in Satou Sabally (signed with New York in the offseason).

On Tuesday night, I’m eyeing a player prop and a side for this standalone matchup, but first, let’s check out the latest odds from DraftKings.

Tempo vs. Mercury Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Tempo +7.5 (-105)
Mercury -7.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Tempo: +260
Mercury: -325

Total

170.5 (Over -118/Under -102)

Tempo vs. Mercury How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, May 19
Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
How to Watch (TV): Arizona’s Family 3TV, The Sports Network, WNBA League Pass
Tempo record: 2-2
Mercury record: 2-2

Tempo vs. Mercury Injury Reports

Tempo Injury Report

Nyara Sabally – probable
Julie Allemand – out
Isabelle Harrison – out
Temi Fagbenle – out

Mercury Injury Report

Sami Whitcomb – out

Tempo vs. Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bet

Tempo Best WNBA Prop Bet

Kiki Rice 10+ Points (-186)

Tempo rookie guard Kiki Rice made her first start of the 2026 season on Sunday, dropping 19 points on 5-of-8 shooting in just over 35 minutes of action. Rice was able to get to the line 10 times, and she’s now scored 11 or more points in three straight games after failing to score in her WNBA debut.

Rice’s role has expanded already for the Tempo, and she’s taken nine, seven and eight shots over her last three games while getting the line 11 times. That gives her a pretty solid floor when it comes to this prop, and if she starts, she’s going to be a steal at this number.

Rice is shooting an impressive 51.9 percent from the field and 41.7 percent from 3 early in her WNBA career.

Tempo vs. Mercury Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I like the Tempo as underdogs on Tuesday:

The Tempo are a better team than oddsmakers are giving them credit for, as they have two All-Star caliber guards in Sykes and Marina Mabrey running the show.

So far in the 2026 season, the Tempo rank sixth in net rating, fourth in offensive rating and seventh in defensive rating while going 3-1 against the spread. Toronto only failed to cover against the Washington Mystics in its season opener, losing that game at home by three points.

Oddsmakers had the Tempo as 7.5-point dogs in back-to-back games against Los Angeles, yet Toronto lost by four and won by 10 in those matchups.

The Mercury are a slight step up from the Sparks, though their net rating is being carried by a blowout win over Las Vegas in their season opener. Phoenix is just 1-2 since, losing by double digits to Golden State and by four at home to the short-handed Minnesota Lynx.

The loss of Sabally certainly has lowered the Mercury’s ceiling this season, and I don’t believe that they’re three possessions better than Toronto, which has shown that it could be a playoff contender in 2026.

I’ll take the points in this matchup, as this line seems to be an overreaction to Phoenix’s season-opening win. I’d likely lean the other way if the Mercury were 4.5 or 5.5-point favorites on Tuesday.

Pick: Tempo +7.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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