Tennessee vs. Michigan Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bet for NCAA Tournament Elite 8

Two of the best defensive teams in the country are set to face off in the Elite 8 with a spot in the Final Four on the line.

The winner of Sunday’s game between the No. 1 Michigan Wolverines and the No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers will take on No. 1 Arizona in the Final Four next weekend after the Wildcats knocked off No. 2 Purdue on Saturday night.

Michigan star Yaxel Lendeborg said that the team’s goal is to be the best Michigan team ever which would mean winning the national championship this season.

"We might be the best Michigan team ever. We're gonna try to go for that." 🗣️

Yaxel Lendeborg never afraid of the moment as he spoke after Michigan advanced to the Elite 8 😤 pic.twitter.com/TEmNzuxx0i
— TNT Sports U.S. (@TNTSportsUS) March 28, 2026

But, can they do it?

The Wolverines are favored by 7.5 points in this Elite 8 matchup, but Tennessee has knocked off some tough teams to reach the Elite 8, beating No. 3 Virginia and No. 2 Iowa State. Rick Barnes’ squad dominated the short-handed Cyclones in the Sweet 16, and the Volunteers have moved up to No. 11 in KenPom’s latest rankings.

Meanwhile, Michigan is coming off a commanding win over the Alabama Crimson Tide and is second in the odds to win the national championship.

Let’s examine the latest odds, a player prop to consider and my prediction for this Elite 8 matchup on Sunday afternoon.

Tennessee vs. Michigan Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Tennessee +7.5 (-108)
Michigan -7.5 (-112)

Moneyline

Tennessee: +270
Michigan: -340

Total

146.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Tennessee vs. Michigan How to Watch

Date: Sunday, March 29
Time: 2:15 p.m. EST
Venue: United Center
How to Watch (TV): CBS
Tennessee record: 25-11
Michigan record: 34-3

Tennessee vs. Michigan Best Prop Bet

Nate Ament UNDER 5.5 Rebounds (-128)

Tennessee star freshman Nate Ament was banged up heading into the NCAA Tournament, and he’s yet to play 30 minutes in a game for the Volunteers since the tournament began. That has resulted in some lower rebounding numbers, with Ament picking up three, four and four boards in three games.

Ament still had a huge game against Iowa State, scoring 18 points on just 10 shots, but I don’t see him making a huge impact on the glass against a massive Michigan front line. The Wolverines rank inside the top 50 in the country in offensive and defensive rebound rate, and Ament has seen his rebound per game number slip to 6.4 this season.

If the freshman continues to play around 25-29 minutes per game, I don’t see him clearing this number on Sunday.

Tennessee vs. Michigan Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s Daily Dunk column – our best college basketball bets of the day – why I’m expecting a low-scoring game:

The Volunteers have made an impressive run to the Elite 8 behind one of the best defenses in the country, but they face their toughest test on Sunday against the Wolverines.

Michigan is No. 2 in the country in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency, and it has hit the UNDER in 22 of 37 games this season.

So far in this tournament, Tennessee has combined for 134, 151 and 138 points, holding Miami (OH) to just 56 points in the first round and Iowa State to just 62 points in the Sweet 16.

The Wolverines are a step up in class, but Michigan just kept the highest-scoring offense in college basketball – the Alabama Crimson Tide – to just 77 points in the Sweet 16.

The Wolverines like to push the pace (No. 25 in adjusted tempo, per KenPom), but Tennessee clashes with that style, ranking 297th in adjusted tempo. So, if the Volunteers can slow things down early, it may bring the UNDER into play right away on Sunday.

These squads are third (Michigan) and 27th (Tennessee) in opponent effective field goal percentage and both rank outside the top-200 in opponent turnover rate. So, there may not be a ton of easy baskets in transition on Sunday.

I like Michigan to win this game, but I don’t love laying 7.5 points after the Volunteers dominated Iowa State in the Sweet 16. So, let’s take the UNDER with two elite defenses facing off on Sunday afternoon.

Pick: UNDER 146.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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