Texans vs. Chargers Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 17 (Expect Defensive Battle)

Who wins this battle between AFC playoff contenders?

The Los Angeles Chargers and quarterback Justin Herbert are favored in Week 17. / Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

The Los Angeles Chargers have clinched a playoff spot this season, and they have their eyes on the AFC West crown heading into Week 17 against the Houston Texans.

Justin Herbert and company need to win out to take the AFC West from Denver, and they’re slight favorites at home against a Texans team that has won seven games in a row to get to 10-5 in the 2025 season.

Houston is one step closer to clinching a playoff spot after the Indianapolis Colts lost to the San Francisco 49ers on Monday, but a loss on Saturday night would make things a lot tougher for C.J. Stroud and company.

Houston didn’t look great in a narrow win over the Las Vegas Raiders (the Texans were favored by two touchdowns in that game), and it’ll need more of its offense to knock off a Chargers team that ranks seventh in the league in EPA/Play on defense. 

All season long, the SI Betting team has been predicting the final scores of NFL games as a fun way to help bettors decide on their spread and total bets.

With just two weeks left in the regular season, we’re not stopping now! Here’s my prediction for this battle between AFC playoff contenders on Saturday.

Texans vs. Chargers Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Texans +2.5 (-112)
• Chargers -2.5 (-108)

Moneyline

• Texans: +110
• Chargers: -130

Total

• 39.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

The odds for this game are moving in the Chargers’ favor, as they opened up as 1.5-point favorites and are now favored by 2.5. Herbert and company are on a little win streak of their own (four in a row), and they’re 6-2 straight up at home this season. 

There is one trend that tilts in Houston’s direction in this game, though, as the Chargers are just 4-6-1 against the spread when favored in 2025.

Texans vs. Chargers Final Score Prediction

Earlier this week, SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan shared his favorite bet for this game in his Road to 272 column, where he bets on every game, every week: 

The Texans and Chargers are more alike than you might think. Both teams are in the playoffs because of their defenses, have talented quarterbacks, but are held back offensively due to bad and/or injured offensive lines. That combination makes me think we're going to see a low-scoring affair on Saturday. Both defenses rank inside the top 5 in opponent EPA per play, opponent success rate, and opponent yards per play. The Texans also boast the best scoring defense in the league, keeping teams to scoring just 16.3 points per game, the fewest in the NFL by 2.3 points per game.

Both teams are going to struggle to score in this one. In my opinion, the total belongs in the high-30s, so with the total set at 40.5, I'll take the UNDER.

MacMillan is expecting a low-scoring game between these two elite defenses, but I’m buying the home team to get a win.

The Chargers have weathered a ton of injuries to get to 11-4 this season, and they now have Omarion Hampton and Quentin Johnston back on offense, which helps make up for some of their losses on the offensive line.

Both players found the end zone in Week 16, and Herbert is a fringe MVP candidate this season. Meanwhile, Houston has relied heavily on its defense to win games, and I was not sold on Stroud’s play in Week 16 against a bad Raiders team.

He could have a hard time against this L.A. defense – especially on the road where Houston is just 4-3 this season. I’ll take the Chargers to win and set up a huge Week 18 matchup with Denver.  

Final Score Prediction: Chargers 20, Texans 17

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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