Texans vs. Jaguars Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 6

Houston is an underdog in this AFC South battle in London.

The Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud are underdogs in Week 6. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

A major AFC South matchup is set for Week 6 of the 2026 NFL season, as the Jacksonville Jaguars (4-1) remain in London to take on the Houston Texans (1-4). 

Entering the 2026 season, both of these teams had playoff expectations, but Houston got off to an awful 0-4 start, moving it to +220 to make the playoffs at many of the best NFL betting sites. 

C.J. Stroud and Co. picked up a major win in Week 5 over the Tennessee Titans, and the schedule starts to break for Houston in the coming weeks. A division win over Jacksonville would go a long way towards this team getting back in the playoff picture, especially since it would be 2-1 against AFC South opponents. 

Jacksonville has been one of the best teams in the AFC early on in 2026, and it survived in London on Oct. 11 to beat the Philadelphia Eagles on a last-second field goal. Some strong special teams play on the final kickoff by Philly put the Jaguars in field goal range, helping them avoid an upset loss as a touchdown favorite. 

Oddsmakers have set Trevor Lawrence’s squad as the favorite once again in Week 6, and the Jaguars are 8-7 in London in their franchise history. After earning the No. 3 seed in the AFC in 2025, Jacksonville is +1300 to win the Super Bowl this season and firmly in the mix for the No. 1 seed in the conference in 2026. 

Houston has four winnable games against the New York Giants, Los Angeles Chargers, Cleveland Browns and Indianapolis Colts after this Jacksonville game. Can it go on a major run like it did in 2025 to make the postseason? 

Here’s a look at the odds, a player to watch, betting trends and my prediction for this AFC South showdown in London. 

Texans vs. Jaguars Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Texans +3 (-118)
• Jaguars -3 (-102)

Moneyline

• Texans: +124
• Jaguars: -148

Total

• 43.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Texans vs. Jaguars How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Oct. 18
• Time: 9:30 a.m. EST
• Venue: Wembley Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): NFL Network
• Texans record: 1-4
• Jaguars record: 4-1

Texans vs. Jaguars Injury Reports

Texans Injury Report

• Jalen Pitre – questionable
• David Montgomery – questionable
• Tank Dell – IR

Jaguars Injury Report

• Anton Harrison – questionable
• Montaric Brown – questionable
• Ross Matiscik – questionable

Texans vs. Jaguars Betting Trends

• The Texans are 1-4 against the spread in the 2026 season.
• The Jaguars are 3-2 against the spread in the 2026 season. 
• Jacksonville is 9-3 against the spread when favored at “home” under Liam Coen. 
• The UNDER is 4-1 in the Jaguars’ games this season.
• The UNDER is 3-2 in the Texans’ games this season.
• Houston has won three of the last four meetings between these teams.
• The Jaguars are 8-7 in London games in franchise history.  

Texans vs. Jaguars Key Player to Watch

C.J. Stroud, Quarterback, Houston Texans

Houston’s 0-4 start brought a lot of criticism towards former No. 2 overall pick C.J. Stroud, but he has played extremely well in the 2026 season. 

Stroud is 10th in total EPA and 11th in success rate amongst quarterbacks with at least 50 offensive plays this season, and Houston is 11th in the league in EPA/Play on offense despite Nico Collins missing multiple games.

In Week 5, Stroud threw for 261 yards and a score, adding two carries for 11 yards and his first rushing touchdown of the season.

Overall, the Houston quarterback has completed 64.3 percent of his passes for 1,402 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions in five games. The Texans will need him at his best to beat a Jacksonville defense that is fourth in the league in EPA/Play. 

Texans vs. Jaguars Prediction and Pick

I can’t quit this Houston team. 

The Texans were the No. 1 team in EPA/Play on defense last season, and they showed signs of life on that side of the ball in Week 5, holding a bad Tennessee team to just three points. 

Jacksonville is a massive step up in class, but the Texans have won three of the last four meetings between these teams heading into their first matchup in 2026. Jacksonville didn’t look impressive against a banged-up Philadelphia team in Week 5, even though the advanced numbers love Liam Coen’s team.

Jacksonville is a top-10 team in EPA/Play on both sides of the ball, but the defense (22nd in yards per play allowed) is gettable this season. 

Houston added former top-five pick Marvin Harrison Jr. in a trade on Sunday, and he could be a solid complement to Collins in a passing offense that is one of the 12-best in the NFL in EPA/Pass this season. 

The Texans’ defense should improve as the season goes on, and it still ranks ninth in the NFL in yards per play allowed. 

After the Jaguars needed a last-second miracle to beat a struggling Eagles team, I think they’re vulnerable to an upset on Sunday. I’ll take the field goal with Houston in what could be an upset spot. 

Pick: Texas +3 (-118 at DraftKings)

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and get $150 in bonus bets instantly when you make your first $5 bet.