Texas vs. Missouri Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 10

Two SEC teams with College Football Playoff hopes kick off a loaded day in the conference in Week 10, as the Texas Longhorns and Arch Manning hit the road to play the Missouri Tigers and Austin Simmons.

Manning has fallen from the top of draft boards with some shaky performances this season, yet he’s led the Longhorns to two huge wins over Ole Miss and Mississippi State to stay alive in the College Football Playoff conversation.

Texas has four games remaining in the regular season with Missouri and LSU standings in the way as the toughest tests.

Mizzou already has two losses entering the home stretch, and it’s an underdog at home against the Longhorns. Simmons and Co. have two more huge matchups against Georgia and Kentucky after this week, making a CFB Playoff appearance unlikely unless the Tigers can pull off multiple upsets.

Texas dropped back-to-back games to Oklahoma and Florida earlier this season, but it has some quality wins, including one over Ole Miss that have kept it in the top-10 in the AP Poll. The Longhorns fared much better against Ole Miss than Mizzou, which lost 31-3 in Week 7.

Here’s a look at the odds for this matchup, a player to watch and my prediction.

Texas vs. Missouri Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Texas -2.5 (-118)
Missouri +2.5 (-102)

Moneyline

Texas: -148
Missouri: +124

Total

43.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Texas vs. Missouri How to Watch

Date: Saturday, Nov. 7
Time: 12:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Memorial Stadium
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
Texas record: 6-2
Missouri record: 6-2

Texas vs. Missouri Key Player to Watch

Arch Manning, Quarterback, Texas

Manning has a chance to keep Texas alive in the CFB Playoff race, and he’s coming off a three-score game in an easy win over Mississippi State.

The highs for Arch have been great, but the lows are extremely costly and are why he’s a confounding NFL prospect.

The Texas quarterback has completed 64.8 percent of his passes for 1,727 yards, 15 scores and seven picks in eight games, adding 120 yards and two scores on the ground. If he can’t outplay Simmons, Texas is going to find itself in a tough spot on Saturday.

Texas vs. Missouri Prediction and Pick

Every game the rest of the regular season is a must-win matchup for the Longhorns, who have one more test after this game against the LSU Tigers.

If Texas wins out, it should be a lock for the College Football Playoff since it has wins over Ole Miss and Ohio State.

The Tigers have been good this season, beating Florida in a huge SEC matchup earlier this fall, but they were outclassed by Ole Miss (31-3 loss).

Austin Simmons is one of the best quarterbacks in the country, but the Tigers are behind Texas in adjusted EPA/Play and yards per play this season. The Longhorns’ defense is talented, allowing under 30 points in every game in 2026.

The Manning experience has been super up-and-down for the Longhorns, and it makes them a risky bet to cover any spread. Still, I’m buying the resurgence from Texas with its back against the wall the last two weeks.

I’ll bet on the Longhorns to win outright and keep themselves in the CFB Playoff conversation.

Pick: Texas Moneyline (-148 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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