Texas vs. Tennessee Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 4

Arch Manning and the Texas Longhorns are favored against Tennessee in Week 4 of the college football season. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Texas Longhorns are now the No. 1-ranked team in the country, starting their 2026 season with a 3-0 record, including a win against the former No. 1-ranked team, the Ohio State Buckeyes.

Texas will begin its SEC schedule in Week 4 when they hit the road to take on the No. 14-ranked Tennessee Volunteers, in one of the best games of this week's slate.

Tennessee is also 3-0 to begin the season, with wins against Furman, Georgia Tech, and Kennesaw State.

Let's dive into the odds and my best bet for this SEC showdown.

Texas vs. Tennessee Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Spread

• Texas -5.5 (-105)
• Tennessee +5.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• Texas -200
• Tennessee +164

Total

• OVER 55 (-115)
• UNDER 55 (-105)

Texas vs. Tennessee How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, September 26
• Time: Noon ET
• Venue: Neyland Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Texas record: 3-0
• Tennessee record: 3-0

Texas vs. Tennessee Betting Trends

• Texas is 4-6 against the spread in its last 10 games
• The OVER is 5-5 in Texas's last 10 games
• Tennessee is 3-7 against the spread in its last 10 games
• The UNDER is 6-4 in Tennessee's last 10 games

Texas vs. Tennessee Key Player to Watch

• Arch Manning, QB - Texas Longhorns

Arch Manning has done enough to lead Texas to a 3-0 record, but he hasn't played as well as people had hoped. He has completed just 61.9% of his passes for 664 yards, seven touchdowns, and two interceptions. As a result, his Heisman Trophy odds have fallen to 12-1, fourth on the odds list behind Trinidad Chambliss, Darian Mensah, and Kamario Taylor.

Texas vs. Tennessee Prediction and Best Bet

I'm selling my stock on the Longhorns. Manning has not lived up to expectations, and this offense has averaged just 5.3 yards per play, which ranks 78th in the nation. Last week against UTSA, he threw for just 164 yards on 4.9 yards per pass attempt. Thankfully, their run game has been good enough to lead them to a comfortable win, but they won't be able to do that against the Volunteers.

Meanwhile, Tennessee ranks 18th in the nation in yards per play, averaging 6.6 yards per snap. They have scored 42+ points in each of their first three games.

With the Volunteers at home, I'm going to take Tennessee as my upset pick of the week.

Pick: Tennessee +164 via Caesars

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