Texas vs. UCLA Prediction, Odds, Key Player for Women’s NCAA Tournament Final Four

The Texas Longhorns and UCLA Bruins meet for the second time this season on Friday, this time with a trip to the National Championship on the line.

Texas knocked off UCLA earlier this season by 11 points, holding superstar center Lauren Betts to just eight points in 37 minutes of action. The Bruins have not lost a game since, and they’re looking to avenge last year’s Final Four loss to UConn in this matchup.

Madison Booker and the Longhorns also were knocked out in the Final Four last season, but they’ve dominated in the NCAA Tournament after beating South Carolina in the SEC Tournament Final.

The Longhorns have just three losses all season long, and they’ve outscored their NCAA Tournament opponents by a combined 142 points.

UCLA survived an Elite 8 scare against Duke, rebounding from a halftime deficit to advance to Friday’s matchup. Can the Bruins get the best of Texas this time around?

Let’s dive into the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for this Final Four clash.

Texas vs. UCLA Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

Texas -1.5 (-118)
UCLA +1.5 (-104)

Moneyline

Texas: -140
UCLA: +114

Total

132.5 (Over -114/Under -106)

Texas vs. UCLA How to Watch

Date: Friday, April 3
Time: 9:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
Texas record: 35-3
UCLA record: 35-1

Texas vs. UCLA Key Player to Watch

Madison Booker, Forward, Texas

Madison Booker had 40 points in the second round of the NCAA Tournament against Oregon, and she’s scored at least 17 points in three straight games heading into the Final Four.

Booker had 16 points, seven rebounds and five dimes in the Longhorns’ win over Texas earlier this season, and she’s been one of the best scorers in the country, averaging 19.3 points per game while shooting 52.3 percent from the field.

In last year’s Final Four, Booker was in some early foul trouble (she finished with three fouls) so the Longhorns are hoping she’ll be able to stay on the floor on Friday. Booker has risen to the occasion in all of the tough games this season, including scoring 20-plus points in all three of Texas’ losses.

Texas vs. UCLA Prediction and Pick

Both of these teams have come a long way since their meeting in Las Vegas, but Texas’ dominant showing in the NCAA Tournament is a major reason why it’s favored in this game.

The Longhorns have wins by 42, 42, 22 and 36 points, easily getting past Kentucky and Michigan in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8. The Longhorns don’t shoot the 3-ball at a high rate, but they have the size in their frontcourt to deal with Lauren Betts.

That’s huge, because Betts has taken over games in the NCAA Tournament so far, but she scored just eight points in the regular-season meeting with Texas. That’s going to be tough to duplicate, but UCLA’s No. 1 offense isn’t nearly as effective if Betts isn’t dominating in the paint and forcing double teams.

UCLA had a tough time with Duke in the Elite 8, and that’s a concern against a Texas team that is No. 2 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Bruins have the No. 1 offense in the country, but I am worried about them losing the turnover battle on Friday.

Even though UCLA has a great field goal percentage defense, it ranks 265th in opponent turnover rate. That is a major discrepancy compared to a Texas team that ranks inside the top 10 in turnover rate and opponent turnover rate this season.

I think this is the year Texas breaks through into the national title game.

Pick: Texas Moneyline (-140 at FanDuel)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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