Thunder vs. Spurs Prediction, Odds and Best Prop Bets for NBA Season Opener

Opening night in the NBA closes out with a rematch of last season’s Western Conference Finals, as the Oklahoma City Thunder and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander take on the San Antonio Spurs and Victor Wembanyama.

SGA and Wemby are once again leading candidates to win the NBA’s MVP, and they’ll have a chance to make an early statement on Tuesday night in San Antonio.

The Spurs got the better of the Thunder in the 2026 NBA Playoffs, but they didn’t have to face OKC at full strength. Both Ajay Mitchell and Jalen Williams missed most of that series, and OKC is hoping both players will be healthier in the 2026-27 campaign.

Still, the Thunder took the Spurs to seven games, though the young core of Wemby, Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle proved to be too much in a road Game 7. The Spurs went on to lose in five games in the NBA Finals, yet both of these teams are +270 to win the title in the 2026-27 campaign, ahead of the defending champion New York Knicks (+900).

OKC made some changes to the roster in the offseason, sending out Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe in trades in an effort to get cheaper. Then, it extended guard Cason Wallace’s contract ahead of Tuesday’s game keeping him with the core of SGA, Williams and Chet Holmgren for years to come.

The Spurs didn’t make any major changes to their roster, but they did add veteran Tobias Harris (out on Tuesday) to give them another proven scoring option in the frontcourt. Harris played a big role for a Detroit Pistons team that was the No. 1 seed in the East last season.

Oddsmakers have the Spurs as favorites at home in this rematch, but can we trust them to be a fully-loaded OKC team?

Let’s examine the latest odds, a player prop to consider and my prediction for the third and final game of the NBA’s opening night.

Thunder vs. Spurs Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Thunder +2.5 (-112)
Spurs -2.5 (-108)

Moneyline

Thunder: +114
Spurs: -135

Total

231.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Thunder vs. Spurs How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, Oct. 20
Time: 9:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Frost Bank Center
How to Watch (TV): NBC
Thunder record: 0-0
Spurs record: 0-0

Thunder vs. Spurs Injury Reports

Thunder Injury Report

Nikola Topic -- out
Thomas Sorber -- out
Otega Oweh -- out

Spurs Injury Report

Tobias Harris -- out
Jayden Quaintance -- out

Thunder vs. Spurs Best NBA Prop Bets

Spurs Best NBA Prop Bet

Dylan Harper OVER 14.5 Points (-121)

Dylan Harper averaged 11.8 points per game as a rookie, but he took things to a new level in the playoffs. The No. 2 overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft put up 14.1 points across 23 games (two starts), even though he played less than 30 minutes per game.

There’s an argument that Harper was the Spurs’ second-best player in the postseason, and he should have a huge role as a starter in the 2026-27 season.

OKC is an elite defensive team, but I’m buying a massive surge in Harper’s numbers in Year 2. He had four NBA Finals games with 15 or more points and two Western Conference Finals games over this number.

I’ll bet on him to continue the momentum in his sophomore season.

Thunder vs. Spurs Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I’m taking OKC to cover in this season opener:

San Antonio may have won the Western Conference Finals in the 2025-26 season, but will it be the better team between these teams in the 2026-27 campaign?

The calling card for the Spurs all year long was their regular-season record against OKC, and for good reason. The Thunder were punked at points by this Spurs team, and they ultimately fell short in the playoffs.

Still, OKC didn’t have Ajay Mitchell or Jalen Williams for most of that Western Conference Finals matchup, and I firmly believe that OKC wins that series if both – or even one – of those players was healthy.

The Thunder are relying on a bunch of young pieces in the 2026-27 campaign, but they got bigger in the offseason by adding lottery pick Aday Mara. It’s unclear how big of a role he’ll play from the jump, but it does give the Thunder another body to throw at Victor Wembanyama in a playoff series.

These two teams both finished in the top three in the league in net rating and defensive rating last season, and I expect a close game in this series opener. However, I trust the Thunder’s core a lot more than a Spurs team that seems to be integrating Dylan Harper into the starting lineup.

The three-guard lineup of Harper, De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle was killed in limited minutes during the 2025-26 season, and I don’t see it holding up defensively against SGA, Williams and Co. They were outscored by 47 points across 69 total minutes together and 25 of those minutes came in the NBA Finals.

So, I suspect that there are going to be some growing pains with that group to open this season.

I like the Thunder as a sneaky underdog bet in this season opener.

Pick: Thunder +2.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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