Thunder vs. Suns Prediction, Odds and Best Prop Bets for NBA Playoffs Game 4

Can the Oklahoma City Thunder finish off another first-round opponent with a sweep?

After sweeping New Orleans and Memphis the last two postseasons, the Thunder and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have taken a 3-0 series lead against the Phoenix Suns heading into Monday’s Game 4.

Jalen Williams (hamstring) remains out of the lineup for OKC after going down in Game 2, but a 42-point game from SGA in Game 3 was enough for OKC to win and cover on the road. The Suns simply do not have enough firepower to compete with the defending champs, losing every game in this series by 10 or more points.

Devin Booker and company went 25-16 at home in the regular season, but oddsmakers have them set at 10.5-point dogs in Game 4. Mark Williams (foot) has been ruled out for Phoenix while wing Jordan Goodwin (calf) is questionable.

OKC has the depth to withstand an injury to Williams (it was 39-10 without him in the regular season), and it has held Phoenix to under 110 points in every game in this series.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Monday’s Game 4.

Thunder vs. Suns Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Thunder -10.5 (-112)
Suns +10.5 (-108)

Moneyline

Thunder: -500
Suns: +380

Total

213.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Thunder vs. Suns How to Watch

Date: Monday, April 27
Time: 9:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
How to Watch (TV): NBCSN/Peacock
Series: OKC leads 3-0

Thunder vs. Suns Injury Reports

Thunder Injury Report

Thomas Sorber – out
Jalen Williams – out

Suns Injury Report

Jordan Goodwin – questionable
Mark Williams – out

Thunder vs. Suns Best NBA Prop Bets

Thunder Best NBA Prop Bet

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 31.5 Points (-116)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Best column – Peter’s Points – why SGA is worth a look with a chance to sweep the Suns on Monday:

SGA dominated Game 3 with Jalen Williams (hamstring) out of the lineup, scoring 42 points on 15-of-18 shooting from the field, missing just one shot in the game from two-point range.

He's now scored 37 and 42 points in the last two games in this series after dropping just 25 in Game 1. SGA also took 25 shots in Game 2 and 18 shots in Game 3, showing that he's going to have a huge role on that end (as he always does) with Williams out.

During the regular season, Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 31.1 points per game, and the Suns don't have many answers for him -- especially if Jordan Goodwin (questionable, calf) doesn't play in this matchup.

I think this line is pretty reasonable for the reigning league MVP, as he's averaging over 20 shots and 12 free throw attempts per game in this series.

Thunder vs. Suns Prediction and Pick

Oklahoma City has wins by 35, 13 and 12 in this series, and it has multiple 20-point wins over the Suns from the regular season.

The Thunder went from 17.5-point favorites in Game 2 to just 9.5-point favorites in Game 3, and that line has moved up just one point ahead of Game 4.

There is a pride factor for the Suns – no team wants to get swept – but the Thunder are a much more talented team even with Jalen Williams out. Phoenix was one of the lowest-scoring offenses in the NBA in the regular season, and that isn’t going to cut it against a Thunder team that has been No. 1 in the league in defensive rating for multiple seasons in a row.

On top of that, OKC has an average scoring margin of +12.7 points per game when favored on the road in the 2025-26 campaign.

Since the start of the 2024 playoffs, OKC has won seven of 11 first-round playoff games by 10 or more points, so I don’t mind laying this number in Game 4.

Pick: Thunder -10.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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