Tigers vs. Blue Jays Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Wednesday, Sept. 16

The Toronto Blue Jays have been unable to make up any ground in the AL wild card race this week, dropping back-to-back games to the Detroit Tigers to fall two games back of the Cleveland Guardians.

The Jays are also a half game behind the Texas Rangers heading into Wednesday afternoon’s series finale with the Tigers.

Detroit has not been eliminated from the playoffs yet, and a six-game winning streak has pulled the Tigers to within 4.5 games of the final wild card spot. While oddsmakers have the Tigers as a long shot to make the postseason, they could inch even closer to the Jays by completing a sweep on Wednesday.

Keider Montero (3.55 ERA) is on the mound for the Tigers in this series finale, and he’ll take on a former Tiger in veteran Max Scherzer (6.38 ERA). Scherzer’s advanced numbers (4.43 expected ERA) are slightly better than his actual stats in 2026, but the Jays are just 5-10 when the righty takes the mound.

Can Toronto bounce back and potentially pick up a game on Cleveland in the process?

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this battle between wild card hopefuls on Sept. 16.

Tigers vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Tigers +1.5 (-199)
Blue Jays -1.5 (+163)

Moneyline

Tigers: +105
Blue Jays: -126

Total

8.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Tigers vs. Blue Jays Probable Pitchers

Detroit: Keider Montero (9-8, 3.55 ERA)
Toronto: Max Scherzer (2-8, 6.38 ERA)

Tigers vs. Blue Jays How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, Sept. 16
Time: 3:07 p.m. EST
Venue: Rogers Centre
How to Watch (TV): Sportsnet, Tigers.TV
Tigers record: 72-79
Blue Jays record: 75-77

Tigers vs. Blue Jays Best MLB Prop Bets

Blue Jays Best MLB Prop Bet

Max Scherzer OVER 7.5 Hits, Walks, ER Allowed (-135)

This season, Scherzer ranks in the 32nd percentile in expected ERA, the 47th percentile in expected BAA and the 37th percentile in walk rate. He’s coming off a rough outing against Baltimore, allowing seven hits, six runs and a walk in a 7-4 loss.

The Blue Jays right-hander has given up eight or more hits, walks and earned runs in four of his last five starts. He’s thrown just 67.2 innings in 2026, allowing65 hits, 48 earned runs and 28 walks in total.

There’s a chance the Jays have a quick hook with Scherzer in this matchup, but the veteran simply isn’t the same pitcher that won three Cy Young awards earlier in his career. I’ll fade him against a Detroit offense that has already scored 16 runs in this seires.

Tigers vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick

So far in this series, the Jays and Tigers have combined for 11 runs in each game, with Detroit (six and 10 runs) leading the way. Could we see another OVER on Wednesday?

The Tigers are playing spoiler to the Jays’ playoff hopes, and Toronto could be facing an uphill battle with Scherzer on the mound. The right-hander has given up nine runs in two starts this month, and he’s allowed three or more runs in six of his 15 appearances in 2026.

Montero (3.55 ERA) has been much better than Scherzer this season, but he’s allowed eight runs in eight innings so far in September. Plus, the Jays are third in the league in OPS over the last 30 days despite a rough start to this series.

The OVER has hit in 52.4 percent of the Jays’ games in 2026, including 52.7 percent of their games at Rogers Centre.

With both Scherzer and Montero struggling a bit this month, I wouldn’t be shocked if we get a third straight high-scoring game on Sept. 16.

Pick: OVER 8.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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