Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Prediction, Odds and Best Prop Bets for NBA Playoffs Game 1

Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets closed the regular season on a 12-game winning streak, and they’ll face the Minnesota Timberwolves in the first round of the NBA Playoffs.

The No. 6 seed in the West, Minnesota is taking on the Nuggets for the third time in four years in the playoffs, and it won the series between these teams in the 2024 NBA Playoffs.

Anthony Edwards (knee) missed time towards the end of the regular season, but the All-Star guard is expected to play on Saturday against this Denver squad. The Nuggets are hoping that their record with Aaron Gordon this season (27-9) is something they can build on going forward in the postseason.

Denver is favored to win this matchup, and it posted an impressive 28-13 record at home in the 2025-26 season.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Game 1 on Saturday afternoon.

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Timberwolves +6.5 (-115)
Nuggets -6.5 (-105)

Moneyline

Timberwolves: +200
Nuggets: -245

Total

232.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets How to Watch

Date: Saturday, April 18
Time: 3:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Ball Arena
How to Watch (TV): Prime Video
Series: Tied 0-0

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Injury Reports

Timberwolves Injury Report

Anthony Edwards -- questionable
Rocco Zikarsky -- out
Zyon Pullin -- out
Enrique Freeman -- out

Nuggets Injury Report

Peyton Watson -- out
Spencer Jones -- questionable

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Best NBA Prop Bet

Timberwolves Best NBA Prop Bet

Anthony Edwards OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-168)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Edwards is a great prop target on Saturday:

Anthony Edwards made three or more shots from beyond the arc in two of his three meetings with Denver this season, and he’s undervalued at this number on Saturday – even though he’s recovering from a knee injury.

Edwards shot 39.9 percent from beyond the arc during the regular season, averaging 3.4 made 3-pointers per game. In the playoffs, he’s averaged 3.1 made 3-pointers on over eight attempts per night.

So, this number is a bit of a steal, especially since Denver (21st in defensive rating) has struggled defending the 3-ball in the 2025-26 campaign. During the regular season, the Nuggets allowed 13.6 3-pointers per game (18th in the NBA) despite posting the third-best opponent 3-point percentage.

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Prediction and Pick

Another play from today’s Peter’s Points, I shared why I’m taking the OVER for Denver’s team total in Game 1:

The Denver Nuggets led the NBA in points per game (122.1) during the regular season, and they posted the best offensive rating in the NBA.

The crazy part? That offensive rating is 10 points higher when Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon all share the floor, something that didn’t happen all that often in the 2025-26 regular season.

Gordon is back healthy, and that’s a great sign for the Nuggets entering this series.

Denver scored over 120 points in three of the four meetings (all wins) with the Timberwolves this season, and Minnesota isn’t exactly coming into the playoffs on fire, ranking 11th in defensive rating since the All-Star break and 18th in net rating during that stretch.

The Nuggets’ offense was the best in the NBA in the regular season, and it should hover around its season average at home in Game 1.

Pick: Denver Nuggets Team Total OVER 119.5 Points (-105 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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